Shrinkflation: Try Gandour 555 for size

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

You know shrinkflation? If you don't now is the time to explore the concept here.

For some odd reason, lately Gandour 555 biscuits were not being stocked in the shops near me in the village where I am. I am not sure why though they were for a long time. Mind you Gandour 555 biscuits are a staple (or were) in the Lebanese diet. You can fill them with loukoum, put them next to coffee or tea, have them on their own, insert them at the bottom or top of custard bowls - the possibilities are limitless.

Long story short, I found a box just a few days ago and it said "15% free". Well, even with the 15% free I am having my doubts. Why? Because, when I opened the box the biscuits were... minuscule. As in almost Oreo small, brittle, and... not very filling.

Long time ago, Patrick Chemali - my digital consultant and no, no relation apart from friendship - came up with the joke that "Daher foods" (which owns Master potato chips) has bought Gandour because both products shrunk in content and offer much less "inside" despite keeping the same packaging.

So the 15% increase could - barely - recup the losses when compared to the original product which was known to the Lebanese for such a long period of time (very oddly the box I currently have does not list the weight per packet on the outside). And if you do not believe me? The current (or at least newer) box of 555 is 82 grams x 8 packets (here)... versus 107 grams x 8 packets long ago (here). So the newer box has 76% weight per packet of the old one - so no, I am not imagining it.

Are we in the January advertising slump yet?

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Dry January.

No, no, not that dry January (the alcohol-free month), the one where there are no ads in town. You might be forgiven to think that many months a year were "dry January" considering how bad the situation is on the advertising front. My pot pourri of ads around town published pre-Christmas (here) apparently struck a major chord and I heard many echoes that 1) the ads were miserable creativity wise 2) these were scrapping of the barrel in terms of already-dwindling budgets 3) since everything and everyone migrated to the digital realm, these were one-offs just for people to keep seeing brands while stuck in end-of-year traffic jams.

As I said, usually January is the empty month: budgets of the prior year have been spent, Valentine is still far-off in February, and strategies (please, it is rude to laugh) are being debated between agencies and client teams (which usually end in some "hurry-up-and-wait" - meaning the client goes incommunicado for a long time then shows up wanting an ad "yesterday"). But again, I cannot stress it often enough, these are incredibly hard times for the advertising business - sure, in other nations as well it seems, but in Lebanon particularly. 

When the crisis exploded in 2019, many predicted that by 2023 the economy would be on the "recovery" - I have spoken to many people who own businesses, and the agreement was that whereas the first half of the year was very promising, starting June (this is way before the next-door crisis started in Gaza, and then escalated to the South of Lebanon) things went downhill, or to be more specific "nosedived" (to quote one person). And since the economy is inter-related (as the Lebanese proverb goes "the blacksmith is at the carpenter's...") it was a full domino effect.

The expats who back for the holidays and end-of-year celebrations apparently gave the restaurants/cafes (not the whole HORECA - HOtels, REstaurants, CAfes) a major morphine shot with 80% of tables being occupied mainly in Beirut and other "safe" hubs (meaning areas close to the conflict in South Lebanon did not get to benefit from the timely uptick) - hotels did not get any of it with expats living either living at relatives' places or their own homes. A much needed interlude for sure, but of course, now that all these people went back to their respective foreign lands (where they reside either permanently or intermittently) in the post-holiday, I wonder what will remain of that boom.

Even the solar energy sector which witnessed a major explosion is now apparently in doldrums - from what I read those who could afford to have such systems installed have done so, and those cannot still rely on the expensive monthly communal generators. Mind you when a major tobacco company shuttered its door, and we know cigarettes sell like candy when stress levels are off the charts, this alone tells you how bad things are (interestingly, the company closed from one day to the next at the end of last year - 2023 - and indemnities were not paid to the workers and managers there). As I said, the economy is not in top shape and whereas the Dollar exchange in the black market is mostly stable, and the whole economy is Dollarized at this point and basically major transactions are in cash, still people are now at the end of their rope with poverty being at 80% of the population (and this is not just some "statistic" - one can feel everyone pinching and trying to save from spending where they can).

Sometimes I wish I can relate better figures and numbers, and yes, a lot of people like to "kill the messenger" rather than look at the real issues which got us here in the first place and which are affecting us all - at this point, a very wealthy man I know moved back with his family to his parents' house (OK, villa) because he could no longer afford to rent because the landlord now wants "fresh" Dollars. 

So again, if this month does not bring any new ads on the street, it is totally understandable. All companies are seeking to cut corners in spending and online one does not need to book or print or whatnot. Meanwhile the situation in Lebanon keeps getting more and more surreal on all levels.

I want to love Lebanese industry, but it does not seem to love me back.

Yes, yes, I am all for "made in Lebanon". I sincerely am.

Remember the lovely slogan that the then Minister of Industry (the late) Pierre Gemayel coined? "Bit7eb Lebnen 7eb Sina3to"? You love Lebanon, love its industry. Brilliant. I also explained prior where it came from here.

So the other day I was at the supermarket, and I was getting a laundry detergent. Obviously I checked a leading local brand like the good patriot that I am. Then out of curiosity I also saw Persil - by Henkel - the internationally leading brand which is imported and therefore has import tariff taxes on it, ergo according to logic, it was more expensive. Not only did Persil have an extra liter in it, it was cheaper than the Lebanese manufactured. Call me unpatriotic but damn it, guess which one I picked?

Yesterday a friend went to visit a local shoe manufacturer who for a long time was known for it good quality and reasonable prices. Well, I am not sure if the quality is still as good, but my friend came appalled - the prices were now sky high. The sneaker that was previously affordable is now more expensive than an Adidas or a Nike. In the same token of logic, guess what my friend ended up purchasing?

Now let's move to chocolate. I am diabetic, so technically I should be off them. Well, technically. But honestly, mother likes a small bite of chocolate so I end up purchasing them (mostly for her. Mostly hehe). But again, the same "no sugar added" locally produced chocolate is indeed more expensive than one coming from abroad. 

Look, I know about economies of scale and the more a factory produces the lower the price etc. But also, remember, I lost all my money at the bank and am trying to do the maximum with a very limited monthly budget. So I am truly price sensitive as a customer at this point. And I really, really want to love our local industry as the late Pierre Gemayel invited me to do. Sadly, it seems the industry does not love me back.

Skybar: a witness to the economic disparity in Lebanon

I have spoken about the economic disparity prior (more clearly here) and about the prohibitive rates of beach resorts (here), and too many times about the price of this and that for the average Lebanese (whatever "average" means). Still, there is always that one indicator that makes your eyes pop.

A lot of people are not aware that - aside from the Palestinian issue - economic and social disparity was among the chief factors that precipitated the war in Lebanon. Please re-read the passage I wrote in 2019 here about the "revolution" that was going on:

"People forget or disregard how much economic disparity between classes actually helped ignite the events in 1975 which culminated in the all out war. I remember what someone in the Lebanese Communist Party told me in an interview: "All I wanted was enough fare to pay a "service" (shared taxi) - not to participate in the upscale events, but to see then from afar". Naturally, like in every revolution or upheaval - there are the dreamers or idealists who want a far fetched goal such as "bring the system down" or something like that. And these abound in Lebanon."

Which brings us to 2023 and the ever-more widening gap. Sure, a lot of people, including myself, have lost whatever they stashed at the bank - some of us are getting it back (or partially) in pennies basically. Other families have people abroad who send them money - remittances have reached 6.8 Billion Dollars last year. Apparently, tourism and remittances account for 86% of the GDP at this point in Lebanon. 

Also, according to figures - whereas more than 500 HORECA (hotels/restaurants/cafe) establishments closed down following the explosion of 2020, figures indicate that in the last few months 280 new restaurants have popped up in Beirut as of late. Batroun is now booming with restaurants, guesthouses, and other assortment of touristic establishments. Prestigious hotels such as The Monroe and The Grey are reopening as well.

Skybar, one of the hottest and more ubiquitous places to party in Beirut is opening this week (June 28th) and its prices are what you would expect in a country with an economy which is exploding. Except that Lebanon's economy is not.

900 to 2500 USD for a table or a lounge (which fits 15 people, yay!). Prices are naturally eye-wateringly high.

But let me give you this other example. When May Hariri - who at the time was an "it" girl in the Lebanese clubs - was asked in 1989 (Miss Hariri would go on to marry then divorce the late great Melhem Barakat) how she was going to get the astronomic sum of 600 USD to do her nose job, she retorted "Allah bi dabber". God will provide.

In a society built on the m'as-tu-vu (have you seen me) and keeping up with the Joneses I guarantee you Skybar will be full.

On the not for profit "Lebanese Private Sector Network"

"Our vision for developing a key player in developing a thriving and prosperous private sector in Lebanon in a liberal and responsible free market economy" these terms define what the "Lebanese Private Sector Network" is all about (in Arabic شبكة القطاع الخاص اللبناني). The private sector, which was one of the main victims of the whole crash which started in parallel with the social movements in October 2019 (but to be clear the movements neither caused nor instigated the crash) found itself in the middle of a quagmire and conflicting decrees - both official, coming from banks, having to deal a multitude of Dollar parities, and a whole list of other issues not the least of which the many institutions and companies which found themselves destroyed during the August 4th 2020 explosion in Beirut.

But it appears they are regrouping themselves into the network in question, and even have their own instagram as a mouth piece (please see here) a small research would lead to them having a specific stance on certain issues which they feel are being detrimental to the Lebanese export industry (namely the Georges Cordahi debacle) which they felt simply disregarded the good relations that Lebanon has with the Arab nations and how this would endanger 150,000 Lebanese expats working in Saudi Arabia and being virtually one of the rare to send back cash Dollars to Lebanon (which is in dire shortage locally). 

Well, apparently they do have a clear vision as to where they see the economy going, which actually is not the haphazard jungle most politicians are trying to steer it towards.

Dollar: All is (un)quiet on the Lebanon front

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Apparently, the MP Kanaan is suggesting the Dollar parity in the banks has been increased to 10,000 Liras (up from the current 3,900), but the original parity (still used for flour and medicines if I am not mistaken) is still 1507 Liras, now the subsidy on petroleum and diesel products has been lifted and now they are imported at 8,000 Liras to the Dollar, all while the black market now clocks around 20,000 Liras. If you are still not yet confused, let us add the Central Bank's circular 158 which basically marks the Dollar at 12,000 while the "Sayrafa" platform check is at 16,000.

In consumer psychology, when you give the consumer the choice between 4 different types of Jam on the supermarket shelf, the possibility of buying is 50%. When the number of different jams is increased to 16, the buying possibility drops to 25%. I am not saying Lebanese politicians are versed enough in consumer psychology, but they are shrewd enough to know the dictum "divide and conquer" - hey, let's pit the people against the banks (once more) while making people really (really) confused about how much their Dollar is worth and in the process increase the volume of Lebanese Liras to make inflation even worse. This should occupy people for a while and get them off our backs. Neat trick if you ask me.

Still, to misquote Khaled El Haber's song:

نحن في لبنان يخير طمنونا عنكم

We are fine in Lebanon, how have you been?

SMS goes tongue in cheek

Hmmm, how about this for a double-entendre: "To every thief in this country, you can't beat a Lebanese" - the ad by SMS (who formerly graced us with this) is actually for them selling safes. So whereas "political" on the upfront, it is actually a less direct way to say that Lebanese stash away their money in safes (or more mundane places if you ask me - the pocket of a special jacket in the closet, a specific yet non-descript shoe box, or what the Dutch call "an old sock" - a place no one else would think about to deter thieves). But hey, the ad actually works. 

In Lebanon, no one-size-fits-all economic solutions

From the series "Hamra 73" - artwork by Tarek Chemaly

When we were at university, we (that is mostly a common friend and myself) had a friend who thought that whatever applies to him applies to everyone else. He bought Stephen Covey's "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People" and he badgered us for months about it. He joined the ushers club - and there you go - we all had to be advised to join the usher club. Worse: He immigrated to Canada. You guessed it, we had to cope with messages about immigrating to Canada. And then he got married - and since then we cannot escape him and his marriage advice.

If I think of him today it is because Lebanese people think there is one single solution to every household. Actually, come to think about it, even people in the same situation (ex: I am single, take care of a parent, chose to leave my work because it became cheaper to stay home,... A case which a friend has the exact circumstances of) our daily lives and therefore choices are not parallel. Which is why, when the friend in question called to commiserate, I was unable to offer any advice. Simply because - unlike my university friend - I understand that my choices and decisions do not apply to both cases.

But never mind - the joke went that when COVID broke, 4,5 million Lebanese shifted from being economic advisors to public health specialists. Everyone and their mother had to give their (unasked for) opinion about the pandemic and how to handle it and what to do about it. Actually, I took a very oblique thinking about my financial rationale. It does not make sense to anyone but me. It is too convoluted to explain it - but the gist is this: Am taking a very, very, long haul look at the situation. Something no economist (of which I am one) would consider, and yet - I decided to do so analyzing the data in hand. Data which only applies to myself.

And this is the trick. Did I invest in real estate? I did not. Did I liquidate my account which a banker's cheque? I did not. Did I say this applies to everyone and their financial outlooks? I did not. I am taking my own risks and my own expense, simply guided by an "inner gut feeling" (make of that what you want) which has served me (rather well) since forever.

Sure you ask: "Rather well" includes your money being stuck in a bank when you were offered to move it abroad in 2018? Well, my 2018 data was different, I knew a crash was coming but no one knew that all elements would compound into this "perfect storm" and that the consequences would be what they are. Still, this is my money, and my choices and thank you for not meddling in either.

I always say to anyone "good intentioned" enough to tell me what to do: The day I go to you and knock on your door and ask for money is the day you can say "I told you so" till then, I am pursuing my strategy that only mentally works for me within my parameters and circumstances.

There is really no one-size-fits-all which applies to everyone and anyone. Sadly, many people think this is the case.

In Lebanon: A redefinition of what is middle class is due.

Fa - artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Middle class, a term frequently used but seldom understood here in Lebanon. I bet no Lebanese has a solid understanding of social stratification and its difficult nuances. Has anyone heard of Max Weber? I think not. And even those who have heard of Karl Marx probably did so through some reference by Ziad Rahbani. If I say this is it because, without any doubt, what is "middle class" in Lebanon is surely eroding.

The current economic crisis has brought many to change their spending habits, their ability to show off which is primordial to the Lebanese m'as-tu-vu system (everything is based on keeping up with the Joneses), the penchant for bragging (or as a friend put it, "I knew that restaurant was dead when my aunt stopped doing her children's birthdays in it"), the hype system (which makes a shop like Zara become high end or an eatery like Paul which is basically something you find in the French metro a proper exclusive restaurant), and the lowest-common-denominator comparisons (Marmaris in Turkey becomes a coveted destination). 

But now all this is gone. The new system is still being built. Surely political powers still hold sway on the populace, but even that is shifting and morphing. Even Zara itself has climbed the echelons to bypass the middle class at this stage. The proliferation of cash economy and pay on delivery as well as second-hand buying are but signifiers of how symbols of what constitutes middle class is changing.

One of the easiest signals to detect as house helps - many were left to their own devices at embassy doors, others quit outright because they were no longer being properly paid (due to the absence of Dollars in the Lebanese market), and economists who say that foreign workers are siphoning Dollars from the economy to their home countries seem unaware that - class restrictions withstanding - local women (even if unemployed and in dire need of money) would not accept to work in houses to replace helps coming from Ethiopia or other nations.

I recently told the story of how at a fancy store, many people would come in ask about the maamoul prices that tripled since last year (maamoul being the traditional Easter cookie) and leave without buying. Without having solid statistics, I can however tell you the cases of many supposedly middle class houses who bypassed maamoul buying this year under different guises - their mother has diabetes, "aslan ma 7ada 3am yeje" (to begin with no one is visiting), am on a diet - but truth be told, it all goes back to: The prices are exorbitant and better spent elsewhere.

A doctor I know, fresh from visiting her husband who works in an Arab country, told me she brought an extra bag filled with powdered milk and other such items for her kids considering how expensive - if at all found - they have become in the Lebanese market. 

Tailors and cobblers are making excellent business, suddenly everyone is waking up to having things that need repairing, because it is much cheaper than buying new items since the throwaway culture had taken hold of Lebanon. And again, what was something that took no time (changing a zipper replacing buttons) is now taking days at repair shops.

I am not saying all this with a negative mindset, on the contrary, a change had to happen and sadly it came about due to the wrong reasons. Still, a redefinition of what is middle class is due in Lebanon.

Would a Lebanese trust a bank again?

Lately, a Lebanese banker said that if we combine what is left in the reserves of the Central Bank (currently 16 Billion Dollars), to what the Lebanese are hoarding in their houses as cash (estimated anywhere between 5 to 10 Billion Dollars), to what is left stuck in the Lebanese banking system (commonly known as Lollar, as coined by Dan Azzi), all this can be added together to relaunch the Lebanese economy.

On paper the idea makes much sense. In the end - what are banks for? Remember the ads with house loans, car loans, personal loans, business loans, heck, even plastic surgery loans, and all other loans? Those were supposed to sustain and launch enterprises, except of course for the bit when all this created a rentier economy based on interest rates, pseudo-Ponzi schemes, and the list continues (for details just check the daily life of an average Lebanese living in the age of hyper-inflation and super devaluation).

Now the bit where the banker went wrong is that - no person in his right mind would trust a bank in Lebanon for a long, long time. Granted, people have short memories, but really. Banks, as institutions have soiled their brands, their reason of existence, have breached the trust of their clients, and all in all have been either idiotic with people's money, or demonic in terms of self-enrichment for their management and top clients.

So basically, whereas the banker means well (I think, though not sure considering the antecedents), that man is not going to touch the money I managed to take out of the bank at a loss and which I am keeping at home. Not just me, I previously talked about how all Lebanese are doing this. In the end, it is this money that constitutes some sort of an insurance against - literally - poverty as the middle class is eroding faster than me writing this post.

Long, long time ago, Byblos Bank had an ad that went with a selling line "a bank for life"... But in English the saying goes, "he cheated on me once, shame on him. He cheated on me twice, shame on me", in my lexicon, banks have cheated us once. I do not want the experience repeated.

 

Dear Lebanese, believe it or not, this too shall pass.

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Well, maybe it is best to begin saying I am not exactly an optimist by nature. If I say so, it is because this post implies a large dose of optimism. But in the last few days, as I was researching a new art series I was working on - OK fine, one of 72 new series am working on - I came across footage from the currency devaluation of 1986 and 1987, which funnily an economist said it was the benchmark of the Dollarization of the Lebanese economy which lead to this current catastrophe we are currently facing with banks.

Long story short to quote "Throw Away Your Television" by Red Hot Chilly Peppers "it's a repeat of a story told, it's a repeat and it's getting old". Save for some fashion changes (and the absence of large barricades courtesy of the next door Ministry of Interior), the footage told me that things have not changed that much. People manifesting, trying to break into exchange offices, beating and smashing the signs of said exchange offices with a lamppost that was snatched from the sidewalk (I can estimate it is Hamra opposite the Red Shoe near what was then the Modca Cafe). Oh and there were military people trying to secure the Central Bank while failing to reason with people (that the salary of these same army people was in itself slashed to pittance tells you about their own confusion).

Sounds familiar? (OK, fine, save for the humongous barricades)

It does, this is 2020 and its "thawra". The anger, the disbelief, the helplessness, but also the bonhomie and that idea that such acts can lead to change (they did not back then, and so far, based on 2020 I see no change either). So where's the optimism bit?

Here's it is. My late father was a government employee whose salary went to three quarters nothing, we were three children who arrived basically back to back (I was the youngest born in 1974), all of us at school, all of us growing up, all of us on hand me downs clothing, all of us with distinct personalities, but also all of us with birthdays (and homemade cakes), and loves (sometimes the same loves, and I would tell you to avoid that), and friends, and teenage years, and films (my first was Jacky Chan's "Sword of Honor" at Sagesse movie theatre).

So why am I telling you this?

Because things went on, and the crisis (crises) was (were) overcome. We managed to survive in very tight times. Sure, I am not preaching some happy-ending story to be made into a film (though it would be nice if Thimotee Chalamet played me), the point is: Even that very bleak time actually tended to end. Was it trying? Ask my parents and their ubiquitous daily Tranxene 5 mg or their chimney-smoking Marlboro (tehrib - smuggled). It would take them forever to kick both habits (OK, to save money they switched to the local Cedars cigarettes at some point though).

You still cannot see the upside of the situation, can you? I do not blame you, the situation is indeed bleak, but revisiting that footage, oddly, reminded me - not of an economy collapsing and savings squandered and day to day hardship - but rather of sunny summers, of cousins living in the upper floor, of outings to the CMC (Club Mountain Cubs) every night, of a blossoming teenage love and of songs played on Pax Radio (as music blasted heavily from the Arabic Jabal Loubnan station from the neighbors' own boombox).

Yes, after a while, what seemed like heavy burdens appropriate for your age tend to ease up, which for me back then centered around a horrible math teacher (no wonder we tend to look at the past with rose-tinted spectacles). So, in several years, the deadly pandemic coupled with an economic crash and a major fear of losing our money stuck in the bank and the wonder if I will be able to secure my mother's medicine, all this will vanish.

And this too shall pass.

What happens when I believe Michel Hayek more than Riad Salameh?

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Michel Hayek can be best described as "psychic". Usually he limits his presence to an audience-shattering once a year interview on New Year's eve. The man gives predictions related to the local and international scene and dips them in a very camouflage sauce - if he mentions that so and so politician will "fight till the last breath" and said politician dies, the media goes into a frenzy: See? Hayek was right. "Last breath" means death. Now, if said politician does not die, the media still goes into a frenzy: See? Hayek was right. Said politician did not budge from his opinions/positions. "Last breath" means he was the last man standing in the negotiations.

This year Michel Hayek broke his New Year's Eve rule by giving one interview to the L'Orient-Le Jour newspaper, and one for Neshan der Haroutounian. In both he made newer predictions. And by God, the man is optimistic. He still maintains that depositors' money in the bank will reappear, Dollar will go back to being available at an acceptable price, and that two miracles await Lebanon: One man-made one from heaven/the sky (all these are verbatim translations of things he said).

Now imagine where I stand: My money - everything I made - is stuck at the bank. Am trying not to flip my cash Dollars which I hoarded at home, am trying to still be able to insure my meds and those of mother are available, while every trip to the supermarket now costs me about triple what it used to, all while having had incredibly little work since the beginning of the year (I am not an economist for nothing though, am exceptionally good at money management so miraculously am still holding strong).

Now, Central Bank governor Riad Salameh is still saying we have gone through the worst but now the situation is improving all while refusing to answer the legal audit's questions (OK, not all questions, just 150 questions remain unanswered), issuing directives which definitely need clarifications (if anyone is reading this at the Central bank, am a communication consultant and an economist, so I can write clear directives that you do not need to clarify ten minutes down the line!), and generally engaging in something that suspiciously looks like a Ponzi scheme.

I mean honestly, who would you believe? In my case my mind is made up. Michel Hayek all the way!

Lollar, Bira, and Lebanon's cashless economy

Bira logo design by Patrick Chemali
Concept coined by Dan Azzi

First was the Lollar. Now the Bira. If it seems am talking gibberish, then welcome to Lebanon.

Both terms coined by Dan Azzi, both logos by Patrick Chemali (disclosure: Both Dan and Patrick are friends).

Ever since, a year ago, Lebanese banks closed for two weeks when the political tumult started (known as thawra), and saw people's trust in them nosedive, Lebanon went steadily into a cash economy as people mostly tried to avoid having their money in banks and exchanged everything with cold hard cash. Throughout this year, I only used my bank card (which is in USD) only once. Pay on delivery stores proliferated everywhere. Once I was at a fancy store and picked a steeply discounted jacket, when I tried to pay for it, the system repeatedly declined my card. I told the assistant something was wrong as the card had a lot of money in it. She shrugged and said "I know, it is our bank machine going insane!". Another design store had a sign that said, "please pay cash or in Lebanese cards, our machine is declining Dollar cards".

Sweden is on its way to becoming a cashless economy, and yesterday, the Banque du Liban thought Elias the grocer and Ali the barber and Fatima who sells Islamically compliant scarves and Carole who sells fake perfumes are all equipped with credit/debit card machines. Basically, and understandably, BDL was unable to get the fuel, medicine and bread un-subsidized, so trying to stretch its meager reserves as much as it can, it capped the Lebanese cash withdrawal from banks and suggested using cards would be just as fine, thank you very much. Elias, Ali, Fatima and Carole beg to differ.

Well, I might be stretching my logic, but it still stands. People have zero faith in banks at this stage, they want to avoid putting their money there. So the idea of cash under the pillow was truly comforting for them. "I Like My Money Right Where I Can See It. Hanging In My Closet," said Carrie Bradshaw in Sex And The City. Many Lebanese would agree. Though the money is not hanging, but rather hidden in the green jacket's upper pocket or in the second shoe box to the left.

A trick on how to survive 2020

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Am going to start this post with an admission: I have had it with my European friends and their first world problems. Only yesterday a friend in Vienna was complaining that he had to show his ID at the border and answer questions as to why he was travelling. I wanted to tell him about how last time, after grueling bureaucracy I got my work visa to Europe only to be put in a glass chamber in front of all the airport for no reason at all for 45 minutes. But honestly, what is the point? 

Europeans have no clue how bad 2020 is for Lebanese people. It is exponentially bad. I have called it before, the "perfect storm" (whereas I was talking about the advertising sector, same can apply to the country at large). 

Capital controls? Check. Political meltdown? Check. Devastating explosion? Covid-19? Unemployment? Poverty? Check, check, check. The list is astronomically long. And all elements in it feed on one another. I spoke to someone the other day, and he asked me if the Dollar was going to go back to 1500 Liras. I tried to make him understand that we are currently paying that peg with the current crisis. His brother was certain that we were going to get money - as in huge quantities of money - from Europeans, particularly France. I did not have the heart to poke his dream. And again, the more you talk to people the more fallacies you hear, and the more the scenarios are outrageous.

Yet one thing I learned about 2020, is that, by hook or by crook, one needs to survive it. Like everyone else, my money is stuck at the bank (unlike everyone else, I believe long term thinking will solve it). Like everyone else COVID-19 has changed my daily routine (unlike everyone else, due to diabetes and common sense, am taking it very seriously. Or as I mentioned earlier, it was not the original hysteria which broke out that got me worried, but rather what would happen later.) Like everyone else I was about to die (twice) on the day of the Beirut explosion (unlike many, I escaped unharmed). Like everyone, I have made it to October pseudo intact (unlike everyone else, I know how taxing this is on mental health, admit to it, and have tried to to amend to it as much as humanly possible).

Well, so what is my magic trick to survive 2020? From the get go, I stopped comparing it to previous years. Everything: The Dollar exchange rate, the bank withdrawals or lack of it, the new normal (or rather abnormal), the price of things, etc... I keep reading all these people ranting on Instagram - two specific people come to mind - who have zero economic vision, no financial knowledge, and yet who act as moral arbitrators and assign the blame on anyone who is anyone, not understanding their ranting - though popular on Instagram - is actually hollow.

But once you stop comparing, once you go on living as you used to (within one's means), once you do not see today's pricing in the view of last year's economy, once you accept that this is a tricky phase where one must "make do and mend" (literally, I found, not one, but two great tailors in a city nearby), once you understand that subsidizing the fuel must end because it is eating away what is left if the central bank's Dollars... Only then will 2020 make sense to you.

But again, once you stop comparing. Once you readjust your expectations to reality, you will end up surviving 2020. With three months to go, that is no mean feat.