Dollar: All is (un)quiet on the Lebanon front

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Apparently, the MP Kanaan is suggesting the Dollar parity in the banks has been increased to 10,000 Liras (up from the current 3,900), but the original parity (still used for flour and medicines if I am not mistaken) is still 1507 Liras, now the subsidy on petroleum and diesel products has been lifted and now they are imported at 8,000 Liras to the Dollar, all while the black market now clocks around 20,000 Liras. If you are still not yet confused, let us add the Central Bank's circular 158 which basically marks the Dollar at 12,000 while the "Sayrafa" platform check is at 16,000.

In consumer psychology, when you give the consumer the choice between 4 different types of Jam on the supermarket shelf, the possibility of buying is 50%. When the number of different jams is increased to 16, the buying possibility drops to 25%. I am not saying Lebanese politicians are versed enough in consumer psychology, but they are shrewd enough to know the dictum "divide and conquer" - hey, let's pit the people against the banks (once more) while making people really (really) confused about how much their Dollar is worth and in the process increase the volume of Lebanese Liras to make inflation even worse. This should occupy people for a while and get them off our backs. Neat trick if you ask me.

Still, to misquote Khaled El Haber's song:

نحن في لبنان يخير طمنونا عنكم

We are fine in Lebanon, how have you been?

In Beirut: Let the old dead make room for the new dead

If you have not read Milan Kundera's "Let the old dead make room for the new dead", I suggest you should. Whereas "new" is an euphemism in this case, it seemed fitting that the only  new ad in town, on just two billboards, was one for dead politician Michel Murr who died on January 21, 2021. The rest? Nothing. Just old ads now torn and losing colors, a testimony of what advertising is in Lebanon today.

I spoke at length about the state of advertising in 2020, and how the numbers dwindled and dwindled last year, till there was none (because when you subtract the costs of trying to fix the agencies after the August 4 explosion, the numbers not only disappear but become negative). There was some animations on Instagram and social media, this year none. 

Beirut is broken. Totally, completely, and utterly broken. Whole malls are padlocked, the few shops open far and in between are empty. I spoke to a shop owner and he said "if I was renting, I'd have left it closed, but I own my shop, I want keep the pretense I am still alive. Oh, and sitting at home with my wife only led to explosive arguments so might as well come here and spend the day." This alone tells you what the situation is.

I was at a famous sweets shop buying the Maamoul Easter sweets - the price per kilo tripled since last year. No less than 4 other people went in, asked about prices and went out without buying. Understandably so. But the malaise, the feeling of tiredness is there - sweeping the city. I spoke of a perfect storm and it is. The disconnect with the political class is through a schism which is ever-widening. Not sure what they are betting on but to be honest makes little or no sense to me. The only glimmer of hope comes from Michel Hayek and his predictions about the Dollar and our money in the banks (the Dollar is supposed to go down and be available, and the money in the banks has not disappeared he says).

But on the ground, today, Michel Hayek seems off the mark. Beirut seems a shell of its self. Yes, yes, I know - the pregnant widow and all that. But throughout, there is nothing magical happening.

The day we immigrated to Sweden

It was summer, which month I know not. But it was summer. Even the year is a blur, though 1983 is a good estimate. My father came back from work at about 2 in the afternoon, and he had a story to tell.

His colleague was immigrating to Sweden. The government there was offering free houses it seemed, something like guaranteed income or secure jobs. The whole family was in the package. Kids in free schools. The deal was a no-brainer. It was rare for my father to be so excited about anything but he spoke and spoke about his colleague and Sweden throughout lunch.

If a child needed any incentive to dream that would be it. And dreamed I did. Sweden! I went to the Larousse 1981 edition and looked up the country. Oh Stockholm! And indeed, there was effervescence in the air, with my mother even jumping on the bandwagon of stories. Really, there was a bubbling atmosphere all over the house.

And my father went for his daily afternoon nap. By the time he woke up, I needed more Sweden ideas.

There was none.

When he woke up, it was as if the whole thing never existed. He no longer spoke of it, not longer said anything. We were still in Beirut, on the 7th floor, with our balcony overlooking the port and the sea. But there was no Sweden.

If I am telling this story, it is because basically everyone in Lebanon wants to go. To quote that poetic title of the late Pierre Bachelet album - "quelque part, toujours ailleurs". "Somewhere, always somewhere else". Not that I blame them - far from it. When I got my first visa to the US, miraculously I was offered an R B2, that was in 1999 - I could have easily worked there. My brother - who was a resident medical doctor there - asked me if I wanted to stay, but I was a very stable government employee, my consulting career was through the roof, I was dealing with international newspapers as a journalist, making money and managing it exceptionally well. Why leave all this?

By 2001 - funnily after my first very long business trip to Sweden (which had a stamp saying I cannot remain in the country after the end of the visa) - I left all this and went from one day to the next to communication and advertising - which included another very long trip to Sweden. Again, my career took off once more, I was making money and managing it well. Why leave all this?

Which brings us to 2021. I can give you all the reasons to leave all this.

Except, now it is too late. No embassy in its right mind would give you a visa. Our money is basically just paper with all the devaluation. People oscillate between rage and despair. They look to insure the basics but even that is not always a given. 

I said it prior that, somewhere and somehow we will get through this, in what shape or form I know not. 

But I will never forget the day we immigrated to Sweden.

We Stores, more is more.

We stores simply asks "don't you miss it?" with a Benjamin Franklin popping up from behind the torn grey design (which could have used of a bit more visibility on a billboard). But still, the ad does catch the attention, my issue is that sadly it took me forever to understand the logo behind the ad (We Stores), of course there are a billion phone numbers (OK fine, 5 numbers). Also note that they charge you the Dollar 1500 LBP (with now the Dollar soaring at more than 8000!), and in the end there's the "Open an online portal and sell your products internationally). Yes, pity, too many things happening in an ad one needs to literally stop to understand (though obviously it could have gone more minimalist!).

Lollar, Bira, and Lebanon's cashless economy

Bira logo design by Patrick Chemali
Concept coined by Dan Azzi

First was the Lollar. Now the Bira. If it seems am talking gibberish, then welcome to Lebanon.

Both terms coined by Dan Azzi, both logos by Patrick Chemali (disclosure: Both Dan and Patrick are friends).

Ever since, a year ago, Lebanese banks closed for two weeks when the political tumult started (known as thawra), and saw people's trust in them nosedive, Lebanon went steadily into a cash economy as people mostly tried to avoid having their money in banks and exchanged everything with cold hard cash. Throughout this year, I only used my bank card (which is in USD) only once. Pay on delivery stores proliferated everywhere. Once I was at a fancy store and picked a steeply discounted jacket, when I tried to pay for it, the system repeatedly declined my card. I told the assistant something was wrong as the card had a lot of money in it. She shrugged and said "I know, it is our bank machine going insane!". Another design store had a sign that said, "please pay cash or in Lebanese cards, our machine is declining Dollar cards".

Sweden is on its way to becoming a cashless economy, and yesterday, the Banque du Liban thought Elias the grocer and Ali the barber and Fatima who sells Islamically compliant scarves and Carole who sells fake perfumes are all equipped with credit/debit card machines. Basically, and understandably, BDL was unable to get the fuel, medicine and bread un-subsidized, so trying to stretch its meager reserves as much as it can, it capped the Lebanese cash withdrawal from banks and suggested using cards would be just as fine, thank you very much. Elias, Ali, Fatima and Carole beg to differ.

Well, I might be stretching my logic, but it still stands. People have zero faith in banks at this stage, they want to avoid putting their money there. So the idea of cash under the pillow was truly comforting for them. "I Like My Money Right Where I Can See It. Hanging In My Closet," said Carrie Bradshaw in Sex And The City. Many Lebanese would agree. Though the money is not hanging, but rather hidden in the green jacket's upper pocket or in the second shoe box to the left.

Waterfront City VS Sakr Real Estate - compare and contrast

And in our first compare and contrast this year, please look at those samples - "al 3ikar akwa istithmar" and "al 3ikar azka isthisthmar" - respectively: "real estate is the strongest investment" (Waterfront City) and "real estate is the smartest investment" (Sakr Real Estate). Waterfront City started it without any doubt, still - you be the judge.... I for one am seeing double. And yes, the two ads are running concurently on the streets right now in Beirut.