Elections 2022: On selling your vote.

Photo by Tarek Chemaly

Selling your vote. Well, let's be honest, can you have an election without vote-buying and falsification?

Short answer: No.

Well, ad agencies jumped at this. Leo Burnett teamed with Lebanese Transparency Agency (LTA) and FP7 McCann with Annahar. Each from a different standpoint.

OK, so LTA went back to the Lollar (term originally coined by Dan Azzi, which if I understood correctly gave his blessing to the campaign, but without Patrick Chemali's logo). Actually, tangible and physical prints/designs of Lollar (that the LTA dubbed as "currency of corruption) were introduced. On May 13, this is when there will be an ATM which will dispense such bills which will move from Dora, to Sassine Square and Raouche.

Annahar went with another idea - since votes will be bought anyhow - might as well advise the votes how much their vote is really worth (with apparently a smart algorithm which calculates exactly how much it is worth compared to fuel, food, education costs etc....). They even launched a website: se3erlsot.com (which translates as price of the vote).

OK, you did not hear this from me but... Do I smell Cannes Lions entries here?

Sakr Real Estate plays a tune people want to hear.

"Instead of freezing them at the bank, release them in a real estate".

Sakr Real Estate is selling what everyone is buying. Namely investing in real estate as a way to smuggle one's Lollars out of the bank. The problem? Ask any analyst worth his salt and he'd tell you this is not the way to go - prices are in freefall (the cash price of the penthouse in a luxury building in Beirut was offered at 85% less than its original asking as long as it is paid in cash Dollars), actually Jihad El Hokayem has long advised that prices will go further and further at a point when one can snatch three properties for what was being paid for one (actually he predicted accurately the bust of 2019 when it comes to banks).

Still, Lebanese do think it is a good investment - and Sakr is riffing on that tune and people are finding it music to their ears. 

Would a Lebanese trust a bank again?

Lately, a Lebanese banker said that if we combine what is left in the reserves of the Central Bank (currently 16 Billion Dollars), to what the Lebanese are hoarding in their houses as cash (estimated anywhere between 5 to 10 Billion Dollars), to what is left stuck in the Lebanese banking system (commonly known as Lollar, as coined by Dan Azzi), all this can be added together to relaunch the Lebanese economy.

On paper the idea makes much sense. In the end - what are banks for? Remember the ads with house loans, car loans, personal loans, business loans, heck, even plastic surgery loans, and all other loans? Those were supposed to sustain and launch enterprises, except of course for the bit when all this created a rentier economy based on interest rates, pseudo-Ponzi schemes, and the list continues (for details just check the daily life of an average Lebanese living in the age of hyper-inflation and super devaluation).

Now the bit where the banker went wrong is that - no person in his right mind would trust a bank in Lebanon for a long, long time. Granted, people have short memories, but really. Banks, as institutions have soiled their brands, their reason of existence, have breached the trust of their clients, and all in all have been either idiotic with people's money, or demonic in terms of self-enrichment for their management and top clients.

So basically, whereas the banker means well (I think, though not sure considering the antecedents), that man is not going to touch the money I managed to take out of the bank at a loss and which I am keeping at home. Not just me, I previously talked about how all Lebanese are doing this. In the end, it is this money that constitutes some sort of an insurance against - literally - poverty as the middle class is eroding faster than me writing this post.

Long, long time ago, Byblos Bank had an ad that went with a selling line "a bank for life"... But in English the saying goes, "he cheated on me once, shame on him. He cheated on me twice, shame on me", in my lexicon, banks have cheated us once. I do not want the experience repeated.

 

The day we immigrated to Sweden

It was summer, which month I know not. But it was summer. Even the year is a blur, though 1983 is a good estimate. My father came back from work at about 2 in the afternoon, and he had a story to tell.

His colleague was immigrating to Sweden. The government there was offering free houses it seemed, something like guaranteed income or secure jobs. The whole family was in the package. Kids in free schools. The deal was a no-brainer. It was rare for my father to be so excited about anything but he spoke and spoke about his colleague and Sweden throughout lunch.

If a child needed any incentive to dream that would be it. And dreamed I did. Sweden! I went to the Larousse 1981 edition and looked up the country. Oh Stockholm! And indeed, there was effervescence in the air, with my mother even jumping on the bandwagon of stories. Really, there was a bubbling atmosphere all over the house.

And my father went for his daily afternoon nap. By the time he woke up, I needed more Sweden ideas.

There was none.

When he woke up, it was as if the whole thing never existed. He no longer spoke of it, not longer said anything. We were still in Beirut, on the 7th floor, with our balcony overlooking the port and the sea. But there was no Sweden.

If I am telling this story, it is because basically everyone in Lebanon wants to go. To quote that poetic title of the late Pierre Bachelet album - "quelque part, toujours ailleurs". "Somewhere, always somewhere else". Not that I blame them - far from it. When I got my first visa to the US, miraculously I was offered an R B2, that was in 1999 - I could have easily worked there. My brother - who was a resident medical doctor there - asked me if I wanted to stay, but I was a very stable government employee, my consulting career was through the roof, I was dealing with international newspapers as a journalist, making money and managing it exceptionally well. Why leave all this?

By 2001 - funnily after my first very long business trip to Sweden (which had a stamp saying I cannot remain in the country after the end of the visa) - I left all this and went from one day to the next to communication and advertising - which included another very long trip to Sweden. Again, my career took off once more, I was making money and managing it well. Why leave all this?

Which brings us to 2021. I can give you all the reasons to leave all this.

Except, now it is too late. No embassy in its right mind would give you a visa. Our money is basically just paper with all the devaluation. People oscillate between rage and despair. They look to insure the basics but even that is not always a given. 

I said it prior that, somewhere and somehow we will get through this, in what shape or form I know not. 

But I will never forget the day we immigrated to Sweden.

Toyota Wigo - Banker's Check accepted

Right on the heels of Suzuki, it seems Toyota will accept banker's check for their Toyota Wigo. Interestingly, there is an for its Hilux model right at the same time which does not mention such check, so perhaps Toyota is trying to target a specific clientele with the Wigo. Interestingly usually banker's check is accepted for real estate, or buying plots of lands, as way for people to smuggle their "Lollar" outside the banks. But between Suzuki and Toyota (for their entry-level Wigo) it seems this applies too as a way for such companies to handle their loans to banks (an easy way to pay the companies' dues) and for people to release their long-stuck Lollars in the Lebanese banking system. 

In Lebanon 2021 picks up exactly where 2020 left....

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Wherever we go (and we are not going anywhere), there we are...

In Lebanon, 2021 is starting exactly where 2020 left off. 

Saluting the medical staff which is fighting covid (wait, haven't we done that enough?).

Cases of covid surging to unprecedented heights (haven't we gone to such heights before? Actually, no, with people being reckless after an original super tight respect for the law - as I predicted here - the number of cases is spiraling out of control).

We are heading towards our umpteenth total (?) lockdown with our (incalculable?) exceptions (again, haven't we seen this enough in 2020 - the best part was the nightclubs open but without dancing).

Banks are still running totally crazy. To begin with there is zero coordination between them. No bank is acting the same, and when a new policy is enacted, clients (remember it's the clients' money in there) are told after the fact not before it. Mind you all banks are acting this way, meaning, a client comes trying to withdraw money only to be told that no, this month the amount changed (usually decreased!) or what not.

We still do not have a new government (what else is new?). The political discourse in Lebanon is still very stagnant at this stage. Interestingly, everyone is waiting for outside signals to come by (mainly the US transition of presidency, which astounds me, because - in case you have not heard - the new administration has bigger fish to fry!).

The advertising scene - the focus of this blog usually alongside with communication - is still in, literally, the death throes. I recognize there are some campaigns running on billboards but this is no indicator that things are picking up. 

Many agencies are either handling their MENA accounts from Beirut (if they have international affiliations), tried to establish satellite offices somewhere in the gulf, are creating systems to avoid having to deal with banks when it comes to payments, and are trying to pick up the debris (literally) of the August 4 Beirut explosion.

Freelancers are really being hit hard. To begin with, companies are recruiting them on the cheap (very very cheap) under the guise of "fresh Dollar" (which means they are paid in new Dollars as opposed to "Lollar" or Dollar already stuck in the banking system in Lebanon) and considering the difference of value between the two, companies in the gulf are recruiting them to do work from Lebanon while abusing their need to survive here. 

Also, banks are blocking all incoming money which these freelancers have gained - the excuse is usually "fear of money laundering", and this only leaves companies like Western Union as a way of payment (the payment is deducted by 2% upon arrival by the way, unless it comes from an American bank). Interestingly, companies cannot send by Western Union, it needs to be individuals - which added a further layer of trying to jump through hoops!

If so far you are not dispirited just by reading this, try living this on day to day basis. 

Independence Day, almost without an advertising whimper

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly from the series "No truce in Beirut (only virgins")

And so Independence Day came and went almost without a whimper. Apart from the ads I spoke of yesterday, I saw some posted here and there but nothing to write (home) about. The projected number that advertising will fall by 90% this year was obviously optimistic (Naji Boulos who came up with the number corrected it in July to 20 million, and that was before the August 4 explosion). The banking issues and the multitude of ways of presenting bills to clients only exacerbated the situation (this includes anyone who still takes contracts priced at 1500 to the Dollar, or those who accept Lebanese Pounds, or a mixture of Pounds and Lollars, or any combination thereof), without mentioning recruiters trying to snatch local creative talents for, literally, pennies under the guise of "fresh Dollars". Add to it the cost of reconstruction that fell on agencies following the Beirut explosion and you have the recipe of a total disaster. 

Notice I did not even mention Corona, which, despite a major spike in cases, still does not factor in (though technically we are on lockdown). Agencies within international networks are managing pan-Gulf accounts, independent ones are hanging by a thread, some migrated to other countries, others are still here but still unable to reopen their offices. On average, I speak of 40 ads on my blog during events such as Independence Day (from a much bigger pool I archive), this year companies almost did not bother. 

No one is to blame though. The public fed up, the economy imploded, the banks are laughing all the way to the bank (yes, I notice the irony of the expression), the mood is somber and morose. Beirut, even pre-lockdown (yet post-explosion) is a ghost town. Major shopping streets are empty, both from shops and shoppers.

All this, when Lebanese are even wondering what "independence" means. Log on to Twitter, follow the tag, and discover the schizophrenia of a country with multiple identities, affiliations, each antagonistic to the other. So here we are, a nation just like the puzzle above (made from two criss-cross puzzle maps of Lebanon found in a junk shop), we are unable to disengage, yet when the puzzle is put together it makes no sense.

Lebanese Banks are shamelessly advertising again

Lebanese banks, currently some of the most hated institutions in a land where many others are vying for the title, are actually advertising again. Want some of the usual CSR? Fancy some promises about new/fresh money tucked in the bank you can spend freely? Miss some of that pseudo-periodic thingy dipped in a flag? And - with most if not all - banks bring in bed with the political class, some are actually talking about rebuilding Beirut. Considering the patron figures these banks protected, and facilitated their money movements, honestly the word "shameless" comes to mind. 

To say that the Lebanese are now in a cash economy is not an understatement, anyone with no bank accounts is considered lucky. I already spoke about Lebanon's economy being cadh-centered, and financial institutions have a very long way to go before reclaiming any sort of trust from the public they willingly and consciously deceived.

My advice for the banks: Shut up.

What happens when I believe Michel Hayek more than Riad Salameh?

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Michel Hayek can be best described as "psychic". Usually he limits his presence to an audience-shattering once a year interview on New Year's eve. The man gives predictions related to the local and international scene and dips them in a very camouflage sauce - if he mentions that so and so politician will "fight till the last breath" and said politician dies, the media goes into a frenzy: See? Hayek was right. "Last breath" means death. Now, if said politician does not die, the media still goes into a frenzy: See? Hayek was right. Said politician did not budge from his opinions/positions. "Last breath" means he was the last man standing in the negotiations.

This year Michel Hayek broke his New Year's Eve rule by giving one interview to the L'Orient-Le Jour newspaper, and one for Neshan der Haroutounian. In both he made newer predictions. And by God, the man is optimistic. He still maintains that depositors' money in the bank will reappear, Dollar will go back to being available at an acceptable price, and that two miracles await Lebanon: One man-made one from heaven/the sky (all these are verbatim translations of things he said).

Now imagine where I stand: My money - everything I made - is stuck at the bank. Am trying not to flip my cash Dollars which I hoarded at home, am trying to still be able to insure my meds and those of mother are available, while every trip to the supermarket now costs me about triple what it used to, all while having had incredibly little work since the beginning of the year (I am not an economist for nothing though, am exceptionally good at money management so miraculously am still holding strong).

Now, Central Bank governor Riad Salameh is still saying we have gone through the worst but now the situation is improving all while refusing to answer the legal audit's questions (OK, not all questions, just 150 questions remain unanswered), issuing directives which definitely need clarifications (if anyone is reading this at the Central bank, am a communication consultant and an economist, so I can write clear directives that you do not need to clarify ten minutes down the line!), and generally engaging in something that suspiciously looks like a Ponzi scheme.

I mean honestly, who would you believe? In my case my mind is made up. Michel Hayek all the way!

History, Karl Marx, Thawra, Sulta, and Abou Saada

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce - Karl Marx

I wonder at what stage Lebanon is. The tragedy or the farce.

Zealots are on all sides, all sides. What everyone seems to want is a black and white no gray zones in a world where everything is full of nuance. Strange how lately several people called me optimist or full of hope when pessimism and day to day rationalism seem to guide me (side note: I still believe, one way or another the money in the bank - the Lollar - will be given back in the long run, this is not optimism, this is the long view of things).

What is sexily called "sulta" (authority - regime) is clinging on to what is has always worked (and I must stress that not just politicians and warlords made it work, it is the average Joe as well) - a post-feudal, clientage-based (wasta) system, and lately argued that no one found its interest in changing the current equation (read here) no matter what Thawra (revolution) doe-eyed youngsters playing revolutionary games seem to think.

Naturally, the August 4 explosion only added to the impasse. But also to the division. The narrative that people are breaking free from their political affiliation shackles is a fallacy (again, read here), no matter what you read on Instagram. A certain person I know, who holds a Ph.D. no less, read in his far left view, that the people who went out manifesting after the explosion had already burried the old regime, in a scene right out of the Communist manifestations with "power to the people" and what not.

Perhaps one of the most pertinent analysis I have read about the situation was detailed in Charles Al-Hayek brilliant Heritage and Roots Instagram account (here):

In the turbulent mid-nineteenth century years, Halil Pasha, an Ottoman admiral, was sent to inspect the turbulence in Mount Lebanon following the end of the emirate system in 1841.
Before setting sail from Istanbul, he paid a visit to the exiled emir of Mount Lebanon, Bashir Shihab, who ruled from 1788 until his fall and exile in 1840.
After the usual compliments, he turned to the emir and asked how he had managed to rule Mount Lebanon for so long and what could he tell him about the nature of the region’s inhabitant.
He replied: “It is true that I ruled for that long, but every three or four years the inhabitants would rebel, although they never succeeded. I would kill, hang, imprison and beat without opposition to make them submit”. As for their nature, he said “there is a bird in Mount Lebanon called Abu Far, which hunts mice. He is bigger than a falcon and perches on a high tree. When the sun rises, he looks to his shadow and sees it larger than it actually is and so he tells himself, today, I must hunt a camel. But as the sun rises higher, his shadow grows proportionally smaller until the sun looms over his head; then Abu Far looks to his shadow and sees it smaller than it actually is, and so he settles on hunting mice.”

The emir who has two male descendants, was known as "Abou Saada" ("Father of "- the customary nickname for married men, and instead of the name of his eldest male descendant (Amin) he was called after his eldest daughter) was wise indeed. Russian writer Alexander Herzen did say "the departing world leaves behind it not an heir, but a pregnant widow"... If there is any transition, it will be painful, and long.

Abou Saada for president!

Case failing, Abou Fouad!

SMS Money counter - a solution to a new problem

Well, here is your solution to when counting large amounts of money - presumably Lebanese currency. Because if you were that awash in cash you'd probably not be Lebanese or at least average Lebanese. But again, exchange offices aside Lebanese are buying mini safes and perhaps counters as well since trust in banks are minimal and everyone is keeping stashes if cash if late in safe places at home. There you go, new problem? Improvised solution!

On the price of things in Lebanon

With the Dollar exchange price varying daily here are some cases I witnessed:

A store owner I know is opening his shop haphazardly with no fixed hours because the price of the merchandise is increasing constantly.

Another store owner who is seeing things fly off the shelf knows it is because she priced the goods at 2600 Liras to the Dollar and openly warned her customers this was not a sustainable strategy. She privately told me "sales are through the roof but [monetary] gain is "batata" (potatoes)".

An apartment owner prefers to keep his apartment empty rather than rent it and lose value in the short-middle run.

Another just rented his at the old rate of 1500 Liras because he fears an empty apartment will not be looked after.

International chains such as Zara are increasing their prices accordingly for their new collections.

Others such as Adidas are exiting the market (at the end of the year).

Another children clothing chain labeled its goods from A to Z each with an increasing price point. Interestingly, only labels G and above existed in the store.

Barter is starting to become acceptable as a strategy between people though the practice not taking off yet.

In the example above (in the photo) a high end sports store is offering a new model at 1,145,000 the comments - now deleted - include:

"Does it come with a passport?"

"The price includes registration at the Department of Motor Vehicles?" 

"Are kidneys accepted?"

"When I will buy it I will give it and ID card, send it to school, right? Maybe give it a name, teach it how to drive...."

Whereas the comments run as jokes, it is obvious that there is no clear strategy as to how prices are being set. Suffice to say 60% of the butcheries in Lebanon closed down due to meat price becoming out of reach to the populace.

The plot thickens sadly, and the belts are tightened.

Consumers are irrational: I went shopping

Remember the other day how I ranted about people queuing at Zara and the Lebanese being a populace that "btedayyan ta tetzayyan"? Well, call me hypocrite - I went shopping (OK, I did not borrow money, but still). Well, the original purpose of the trip was to deliver things to my sister in law. I told our house help who fears Coronavirus irrationally and who has been fantasizing about buying clothes for a long time that she could accompany me to save her taxi money anyway.

Now, truth be told, I did need a pair of pants. The other day I went to town and came back with red patches on my thighs following me wearing my skinny jeans in the scorching heat. And with me losing so much weight due to diabetes finding pants my size are more a miss than a hit. Well, it turned out Calvin Klein produced too many children pants, and an outlet store was selling them a less than 2 Dollars.

Oh and rest assured our house help bought several items too, got all dressed up at home and I took photos of her in the new attire and the result was sent to her friends and family.

So where is the irrational part? The irrational part is the quarter zip jacket from the Puma x Han Kjobenhavn collaboration (my size no less!), deeply discounted, and sitting there waiting for me (or for any other irrational sucker)! Now, did I "need" such a piece in my wardrobe? It all depends what "need" means, because I certainly was not leaving that piece for any other person (not at that price, and not with my size being available).

Long story short, I am eyeing another pair of pants. But the rational me - which took over again - is saying "wait until you straighten your financial affairs with the bank in two weeks".

I - even with hearing aids on - ended up listening to the rational me.

Now, the question that begs itself: Do I "need" those deeply discounted Church's shoes?

I told you, consumers are irrational.

BOB finance compares itself to itself!

BOB finance has an intriguing ad: "there is the bank and there is us". Technically, no issue. But BOB means Bank of Beirut! Let me understand - a company that is an offshoot of a bank says there is the bank and there is them. It is like comparing apples to.... Apples. Basically - no comparison!

IDM converts customers' payment to Lebanese pound.

Well, here's a nice gesture - IDM is converting client payments to Lebanese Lira. Big deal? Yes. To those living under a rock, Lebanon now has two Dollar exchange rates. The official - the one that comes ftom the Central Bank (1507) and the volatile black market one (please do not be fooled by the 2000 rate that the syndicate of exchangers has fixed - Dan Azzi explains why clearly here). Now, you'll say companies are sheltered from this. Actually not true, because even CEOs have to buy things from shops and each one is behaving differently on the matter so they too - are exposed to a varying price. Which makes this gesture kind of nice to customers.

The Extra Sketch and advertising irony

Remember how much people are up in arms against banks?
Remember how much we talk about monopoly money and Lollar?
Remember how much Bank Audi has become truly detested?
Introducing that impeccably ironic (though not designed to be so!) ad by The Next Sketch.
Seriously, even planned, it would not have worked as well as this!
Anyhow please check these two previous instances:

Bassima's album titled "what brought you back?" next to an ad when Emile Lahoud's mandate was extended.

Photo credit: Geoana Hobeiche Massabni

And a Ramadan Greeting courtesy of Chivas Regal.

Lollar t-shirts now available via Patrick Chemali

Dan Azzi coined the term Lollar, Patrick Chemali came up with the logo and website, and now the merchandise is here! Well, if you cannot beat them, join them - and release your lollar in the process. A strange world indeed, filled with strange friends who come up with the weirdest ideas!