Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistics. Show all posts

Monday, July 4, 2022

Advertising spend was 4,5 Dollars/person in Lebanon in 2021 (UPDATE)

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

There. It's official.

Lebanon suffered 69% loss in ad spent between 2020 and 2021 as estimated by IPSOS.

For the full breakdown of the figures in the Arab region and the GCC please do the exclusive article in ArabAd (here). As usual, the yearly reveal of the figures creates a yes-no-maybe storm with some agreeing and other disparaging the numbers.

Still, the small miracle seems that in Lebanon, there was an ad spend of 57 million USD in 2020. This is very surprising considering how everything had already broken down by that point and things were spiraling out of control. There was a prognosis that ad spend would go down 90% in 2020 and that the projected figure was 100 Million USD or 25 USD per person (estimating Lebanon's population is 4 Million - and excluding the Syrian refugees which at one point were 1 or 1,5 million) - see here.

The figure ended up 57 million not 100 making the ad spend in Lebanon in 2020 actually 14,25 USD.

Which brings us to 2021 which witnessed -69% loss in terms of ad spend to reach 18 million - an abysmal figure if there was ever one. Or - wait for it... 4,5 USD per person.

Comparatively, KSA witnessed a growth of 96% to reach 1.520 Million Dollars. 

So here we are, the numbers are out, and they are really bleak.


Update:

This came directly from trusted source Naji Boulos

"Many ad professionals agree that the ad spend in 2021 was maximum 10 millions. Ipsos always inflate the numbers to make Lebanon look good. So in reality we are at around 2.5$ per capita."

Saturday, September 18, 2021

Lebanon: Dewey, Truman and skewed research

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

The other day I came across this poll on Linkedin, the question was: Are you leaving Lebanon?
First chance I get... 44%
Already left! 34%
No, I am staying for now... 22%
Never! 0%
59 votes •
Poll closed

Interesting result. Now whereas I did not vote, my vote would have been "Never!"... Ah good patriot Tarek and his lofty country ideals. No, not really. Actually, not at all. Wait, what?
Precisely, if my answer is "Never!" it is because, born in 1974 I am past the age of moving to another country at this stage, I have my elderly mother to consider, I have a multitude of financial factors binding me to Lebanon and the list continues. Patriotism is not one of them.
But this precisely what infuriates me about research on social media. Not long ago I came across a "research" on instagram, the results were something like "72% wanted leadership change" while "81% would vote for NGO candidates in the next parliamentary elections". Now this baffled me. Why? Who is your sample audience, how were the questions asked, was there interviewer/interviewee bias, how were the answers constructed, was it open or closed ended question, and so on and so forth. When I tried to ask these questions to the person who posted the results, the only answer I got "these were my friends online". 
Friends online? Meaning Kale-salad eating, upper-middle class (before the financial crash), once-a-week mani/pedi (truth be told I had to research the meaning of that when I read it), ladies-who-brunch kind of friends? Ah so yes, that research is very reliable you know. It does express what the normal average Joe and average Jane think.
When obviously, it does not. And yet, here it was, the result was posted proudly online. 
I suppose you know the story of Dewey defeats Truman, if you do not I urge you to read it. It all started with the wrong sample. This reminds me of the debacle of the Beirut Madinati in the Beirut municipal elections in 2016 (please check here). Please do note, I think this might be global rather than Lebanon-specific, as a phenomenon but the fact that these researches are trying to portray Lebanese people and failing at it truly infuriates me.

Saturday, December 12, 2020

Helem trans study and Lebanese entrenched values

I shall begin this post by a parallel story. When men's fashion bible, GQ, set out to elect the decade's most stylish men, it came out with some incredibly stylish men: A$AP Rocky, Kanye West, Justin Bieber, LeBron James... But the winner was... Roger Federer. Yes, the boringly suited, with the occasional limited edition watch Federer. If I am relaying this story, it is because - for all GQ's gutsiness - the people who voted this represent its readers: A chunk of the male audience which remains quite conservative.

Which brings me to the Helem statistics about trans people in the Lebanese society. Lebanon has always been touted as some sort of progressive beacon in the Middle East. With our women's rights' laws still lagging, with issues of homosexuality still up in the air, with our pseudo-feudal system still deeply intrenched with religious authority figures (I really, really, wanted to know the reaction of the local clergy about Pope Francis declaration about him endorsing same-sex civil unions), with youth still quasi-indoctrinated by either their parents, their peers, or the religious upbringing (recently a meeting for "Thawra" factions ended in blows with the participants still not able to agree about civil unions in Lebanon). 

And to go back to the said statistics: Only 21% of the people who participated in the survey were able to complete their desired level of education (a misleading figure to be honest as it does not say if the transition happened before or after completing the said level of education - what if they finished their education prior to transitioning?). 

Apparently 50 trans people participated in the survey of whom 46 consider immigrating or requesting asylum, and 38 of whom corelated that to difficulty of finding employment. 25 out of the 33 employed trans people (in what sectors? with what salary brackets? can their employment rate equal the national level of unemployment?) say they encountered physical abuse (32%), verbal abuse (72%), bullying (68%), financial exploitation (44%). 

Again, without trivializing the numbers financial exploitation is rampant - specifically these days with the advent of the notion of "fresh Dollar" where international companies are recruiting people at ridiculous salaries. Bullying is the bread and butter of the advertising industry, trust me I know and I paid dearly for standing up and basically not having it (once more this does not make it right, but again, how does this compare to national averages if there are any - LinkedIn is full of stories of bullying at work).

88% said that discrimination was the cause they did not find work. Ask any qualified actor, and they would tell you that their years of training at college has come to naught after being replaced by the beauty queen/model du jour. Once more, not trying to shade the numbers, but this is not some isolated case - it is known statistically that thin people make more money than people who are fatter for the same positions, same applies to women (who are estimated to earn 81% of men's salaries for the same positions).

Now here is my two cents: I am an extremely liberal person, I would not give a toss about your sexual identity (I clearly recall an incident which happened in class where one of my students was married and already had a child, at the end of the course she approached me and said: "ever since I got married, I became "wife of", when I had a child I became "mother of", in your class this is the the first instance where I felt I was simply a human being), how you present yourself socially (though to be honest, I voted for Federer in the GQ survey), and all that.

But I also realize that in a society like Lebanon to be trans is to threaten people in their masculinity or femininity (Helem is mainly composed of queer men and women, and even such people can feel under attack - I am not inventing this: Antonella, who at one point was Lebanon's most visible trans (who is currently residing in Canada) said so on television long ago on NTV with presenter Rania Baroud). But let us be honest, is Lebanon really the forward-thinking country that people like to think of? Can you see a trans person in the customer care department of a bank? Would a Lebanese feel emotionally safe if the marketing director or welcome desk attendant of a hotel was trans? And the list continues.

As I said, I am too liberal to give a toss. But again, perhaps our country is not as progressive as we think it might be. And not just our country, the US elections gave us a very clear idea that more than 70 million voters still thought Donald Trump deserved a second mandate of four more years - and the idea of having Harry Styles in a dress on the cover of Vogue sent conservatives into a frenzy (as if David Bowie or Marc Bolan never happened before, or the video for "I want to break free" by Queen was never broadcasted).

People still revert to classical and stereotypical gender assignments. It makes them safe you know.

Oh here are two shocking facts before I go:

High heels were invented for men to better be able to position their foot on the stirrup of their horse.

Up until the 50s any respectable man had a pink shirt in his closet - that pink became color coded came later.


Wednesday, December 2, 2020

Dod El Fasad, against corruption: Are we holding the stick from the wrong end?

Dod El Fasad (against corruption) - a worthy initiative for sure. One of its own backers, USJ, just a had a major hand fight between students loyal to the Lebanese Forces and those loyal to the Hezbollah. Which goes to tell you that we are a long way off from the objectives of such initiatives. Sure, statistics did say that only 8% of Lebanese youth belong to political parties, but this does not cover those whose parents indoctrinate them without the need to belong to the party, or those who grow in areas specifically loyal to a certain party, or those already subjected to peer pressure, and the list continues. Because fighting corruption is not something up in the air, it is a day to day level of civism which - let us be honest - we  have not reached yet. All this makes me wonder about the efficiency of such campaigns (and not just the advertising ones) which are backed by international and local partners.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

8% of Lebanese youth are in political parties: Statistics, bias and errors

Try as I might to find the original link to the story above which appeared in Annahar newspaper and which was relayed by Daleel Thawra I could not.So I magnified the image and tried to read the text as best as I could. I think the main flaw and the sensationalized headline of this study lies in a simple word: Statistical bias. The study seeks to find how many youth are officially in political parties. Yay 8%! Obviously this disregards the reality on the ground, which is the clientage system. Meaning you are "mahsoub 3ala" (assumed to be voting for) so an so family/political party (as they are interlinked) without being officially in the said party (which, without subscribers can still draw a bucket load of money from international sources). I seriously think the above study and results are flawed and biased.

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Of advertising statistics in 2020 in Lebanon (reading Naji Boulos numbers)

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly
Prominent ad person Naji Boulos projects 25 USD per person in 2020 in terms of ad spending in Lebanon. In 2019, for the first time in 22 years (still according to Naji) that number dipped below 100 million (if the number was adjusted to inflation I know not). Actually this is how he got to the 25 USD number - a best case scenario of 100 million divided by the Lebanese population. The projection does make sense. My point of squabble (and I stand corrected if I misunderstood the numbers) is that he says this is 40% drop - which presumably means when compared to 2018. Let me remind you - without the political elections of last year, the media spend numbers would have been as bad as 2019 (again, not sure I understood the numbers correctly but if I did, then the 40% does not hold as the political spending skewed the average incredibly badly).
Yes, yes, in times of down-market, advertising is an investment - meaning when the market improves and customers get disposable income to spend again, the top of mind brand would be yours. But what's with ad agencies in Lebanon using the lowest prices to compete, with customers cutting corners and marketing departments always using the lowest common denominator, and with this whole conundrum working against any logic, then investing in brand building in Lebanon in down-time remains a theory.
The 25 USD number that Naji proposed could also be an exaggeration, though theoretically it does hold. Last year, December which is usually the busiest OOH (Out Of Home) month was a total disaster. Poor revolutionaries, they had to fight the false claim that it was all because of them when it was a perfect storm which had been brewing for - literally - years. Ad agencies are struggling just to remain afloat in Lebanon when they were already barely doing so earlier as the whole ad landscape was morphing. Which means that already there are bleak hopes.
Lately a major marketeer said I was simply preaching "doom and gloom" and that ad agencies are now doing what they did in 90s - meaning servicing the GCC from the Beirut offices. Which will procure a lifeline - specially to the agencies with international alliances who secure contracts across their whole networks, still, what's with rents and payments and blockages and banking haircuts, this whole theory does not have much merit. Beirut is certainly an extremely pricey city to operate a business in as per international statistics.
And so now what?
Well, now we wait. And now we morph. And now we adapt. Or now we die.
That the Lebanese built the GCC ad industry is no secret, but they also did not build a good structure back home. Is now the time to do it? I know not - as I doubt that suddenly, ad people in Lebanon start thinking "institutionally" as opposed to "I'll give a lower price than my competitor".
If I am preaching doom and gloom as I have been accused, I apologize. But someone, somewhere, must look at things beyond the artifice and that "bland optimism" of "no matter how you throw the Lebanese he lands on his feet" - because really, I think the cat in the Lebanese is approaching its 9th life, and quickly.