And so Hizbollah is alive (according to Iran that is)

Please note, I am not here to promote ideas, conspiracies, geopolitical theories or what not (by this I mean the one that is being paddled whereby Hassan Nasrallah and the Hizbollah leaders were sacrificial lambs in a major deal between US and Iran). All I am saying is, there is an ad that is doing the rounds straight from Iran that goes "Hizbollah is alive" with some beautiful Persian calligraphy and the photo of none other than (non-alive) former head of the Hizbollah. Interestingly, these were done, approved, hanged even before there was any confirmation about the fate of Nasrallah from a formal communique (which well, makes you wonder, when they knew what they knew). Whereas it does not show in the photo, they did use the Hizb yellow background (but the original image is a bit skewed). So here we are, the tale - apparently - goes on, with an understudy of the main actor.

My crystal ball applies only to advertising

Part of my installation "No Truce in Beirut, Only Virgins" (here)

Recently I wrote a post, "Jours tranquilles a Beyrouth" (here), and here we are right in the middle of back-to-school Lebanon is again, in the throws of war. Strangely, whenever the geopolitical situation gets testy or bleak, I have - relatively a lot of people - asking me "so, what do you think will happen?". Not sure if my infinite advertising wisdom of knowing what is inside advertisers' head however extends to politics or conflicts. Funnily, the late Andre Leon Talley - here - used to say he can see the images on the mood board of designers in the collection and know their influences, oddly, I can do the same to advertisers - my immense back catalog both in my brain and my archive can immediately spot which previous ad influenced them, but I digress. 

And now? Now no idea. The Iranian embassy was very clear (here). Revenge will happen. Was this the promised revenge - either from Hizbollah or the Iranians - I know not. All I know that we are again, very close to an all out war. The international press is all over this, each covering it from its biased angle (spare me the fair and free reporting lie). But does this influence anything on the ground? No, it does not. The field equation is separate from pundits.

Each side is now claiming the "damage was minimal" or "operation was a total success" (both sides are, as Hizbollah has caught up, if not bypassed, Israel in terms of mastering propaganda - not just to their loyal public but to the world at large). I have no possibility or clue of checking either claim - as I said, the press is covering it in a very biased way. 

Is this the beginning of an all-out regional war or is this an increase in skirmishes from both sides? Either way, I know not. My crystal ball seems to apply to advertising more than anything else.

Some casual anti-Hizbollah propaganda on the net

That is interesting.

I was looking at a website I browse daily and in a section about "the best printed t-shirts for men" were some ads in the middle.

Kitchen decor and storage.

Website looking for a new writers.

Anti-Hizbollah propaganda.

China textile exhibition.

Wait what?

There you go ads showed up on scrollers in that order. Actually there was a "read more" button. Which honestly I did not check because I was busy doing a screenshot of the ad above (you're welcome).

OK so for the ad:

(Screen 1)

"After every hit for its leadership, the confusion of Hizbollah goes out in the open and how permeated their ranks are"

(Screen 2)

"Is serving the purposes of the destructive Iranian agenda worth the losses the party is incurring in terms of sacrifices?"

All this reminds me of this campaign - here and here. Same questions - who is booking this and with what money? Sure, the purposes are known though. Are these changing the "hearts and minds" of people? I honestly doubt.

So the airport screens have been pointlessly hacked

A long, long time ago, I actually worked at the airport. I was in top management if you want to know. We used to get Al Liwaa newspaper daily. One day there was a caricature about the president of the republic. The next day there was about the head of Hezbollah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. So one secretary said "el rayyes fhemna bass el sayyed kamen!" (the president, we get it, but also the sayyed!). This is to tell you that well, political affiliations in Lebanon run deeper than the affiliation to the representatives of the land.

I am saying this because yesterday, the screens of the airport have been hacked with an anti-Hezbollah message. "In the name of God and the population, the Rafic Hariri airport is not the Hezbollah airport and that of Iran. Hassan Nasrallah you shall not find an ally if you get Lebanon into a war for which you shall handle the responsibilities and consequences. Hezbollah we shall not fight on behalf of anyone, you have already taken out our port and now you will do the same for the airport because you are bringing guns in. Let the airport be free from the grasp of the small nation".

All right, it did not take long before this became a meme. Also there is an image of the flights being written with a sharpie on a movable paper board. The authenticity of that image has not been verified however.

So, where does this leave us? Nowhere, quite honestly. I said it before, in Lebanon there is no political advertising (here). This means that people's political positions are too entrenched and run deep. Those who already dislike Hezbollah will find this hacking useful, those who do will find it irrelevant. And let us be honest, what the hacking will change on the ground is utterly nothing. It will not sway people, will not change their mind, will not make any geostrategic impact.

So why did it happen? No idea. Same with with those billboards on the street that say Lebanon does not want war (here). Someone paid for those, who? Again, no idea. Maybe the same people who did the hacking. Someone should tell them this is pointless.

Unsubstantiated allegations against Tanal Sabbah (Chariman of the Lebanese Swiss Bank)

Full disclosure: at one point Lebanese Swiss Bank was a personal client of mine.

Now that I said that, today a certain website was shared with me from an email which is obviously an alias. The site tanalsabbah.com contains unsubstantiated allegations against the man - who is the chairman of the Lebanese Swiss Bank.

I can tell you things about Tanal Sabbah, compared to many many other bankers, he is colourful, has a very outgoing personality and from my own relationship with him I can tell you stories about him which may not be fit to print. Now, stupid and careless is not one of the attributes I would qualify him with.

The website above contains some very serious but honestly unsubstantiated allegations about the man and his supposed relationship to Hizhollah and even gives the example of two shuttered banks - Jammal Trust Bank and Lebanese Canadian Bank who were closed to their supposed ties to Hizbhollah (very complicated matters, not all of them proven).

But here's the rub, why would anyone want to smear Tanal Sabbah?

Here's a fact which may or may not be related: Of all the Association of Banks in Lebanon members who resigned, Tanal Sabbah is the only one who was not re-elected because hey strayed from the official line of discourse the ABL was promoting.

Food for thought?

PS - to whomever is behind the site, "evidence" is not plural so you can't say "evidences"....

Lebanon, the international tribunal and rogue elements

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Never a dull day in Lebanon. Severe uptick in Coronavirus cases? Check. Explosion listed as third powerful in humanity's history? Check. Unofficial banking controls? Check. Social unrest? Check. Crumbling structure and infrastructure? Check. Do I go on? Oh yes, international tribunal that cost and arm and a leg (800 Million Dollars to be specific) pinned on a member of the Hizbollah but not on the party itself with the incriminating evidence being the use of multicolored phones? Check. During the war, when a ceasefire would be declared yet sporadic skirmishes continued here and there, the blame would be put on "rogue elements" or in Arabic the more poetic "3anaser ghayr mondabita". In essence that is what the whole international tribunal was about: One specific individual who happens to be a member of a party a la 9 to 5 but has outside hobbies on his own, to which, like luxury company Hermes, he is allowed to use the company logistics and hardware so long he does not sell a competing product. Never a dull day as I said.