Anyone who says they know what is going to happen is lying

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly (2018)

Another post with a long title. But again, I could not avoid it. I was talking offline to political scientist, a real one not one of those silly talking heads that pop up on TV and start guessing, and he said "no one knows what is happening, this will change from hour to hour" - already the seismic shock of the admission of the death of Hassan Nasrallah by Hizbollah has sent shockwaves on all fronts, not least of all internal. The repercussions of losing such a seasoned player is akin to when Rafic Hariri was assassinated in 2005, It was a puzzle whose parts were thrown in the air and now being recofigured, in a different shape, with a different picture, and same players minus one. But again, just like Hariri had a firm grip on the constituents of the state, same goes for Nasrallah.

And obviously, this begs the question - now what? Late writer John Le Carre once said "society is unconcerned with the aftermath of sensation." We are now on the front pages of newspapers, worldwide, but soon a different crisis will emerge and dethrone us. And if we are going to count on the Lebanese politicians, who have proven to care for no one but their own interests (though, truth be told, their longevity in the business might prove they are doing a good work taking care of themselves - except well, those who were assassinated) then we might be stuck in the same loop.

Because as it is half a million people have fled the south of the Lebanon occupying as many governmental schools as possible (schools which are not equipped to handle them), and - whereas a lot of people are doing splendid work on the ground distributing mattresses and food for them, already the Lebanese society is stretched to the extreme between the financial, political, and economic crash it has been facing since 2019 - not to mention the influx of Syrians who fled their own country for obvious reasons. And now we are at the gates of winter, and people's goodwill shall soon dry up.

Which brings us back to: Anyone who says they know what is going to happen is lying.

Can we apply MAD theory between Hezbollah and Israel? Thank you.

Still from the movie War Games

Good news: Hezhollah has precision missiles (as per Israel's Channel 13)

Bad news: Hezhollah has precision missiles (as per Israel's Channel 13)

Now, yes, I know - the same news can be looked at from two competing points of views. And I am personally freaking out with the possibility of a war looming (hey, I said the same thing about banks crashing and I was laughed at!). Naturally, between our economic breakdown, or the covid situation, or the daily struggles we face in Lebanon, or the lack of government, or the disparity in opinion when it comes to our regional allegiances, or this incredible dark cloud (hey, with the winter being so rainy-less so far it is not even a "real" cloud!) looming over Lebanon, all this is not even on the radar yet.

But it is there, make no mistake.

My best hope is that the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) theory would prevail between Lebanon (specifically Hezhollah) and Israel. I mean, it did work preventing a global war between the United States and the (then) USSR, so why not now. In case you are not familiar with the concept, MAD is simply about the idea that once war is unleashed, it is enough to destroy both sides of the equation. And yes, I know what you are thinking, how can Hezhollah claim to have the same military capacity as Israel?

Exhibit one: the 2006 war.

Exhibit two: Hezhollah has precision missiles (as per Israel's Channel 13)

That Lebanon needs less worries and hassles when we have a(n almost) total void of central decision making what's with a caretaker government taking the backseat, and a new government formation taking no seat at all, is a bit obvious. Still, I may be ringing the doom and gloom for no reason (that's me calming myself down), but realistically... Where is Stanislav Petrov when you need him?