Anyone who says they know what is going to happen is lying

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly (2018)

Another post with a long title. But again, I could not avoid it. I was talking offline to political scientist, a real one not one of those silly talking heads that pop up on TV and start guessing, and he said "no one knows what is happening, this will change from hour to hour" - already the seismic shock of the admission of the death of Hassan Nasrallah by Hizbollah has sent shockwaves on all fronts, not least of all internal. The repercussions of losing such a seasoned player is akin to when Rafic Hariri was assassinated in 2005, It was a puzzle whose parts were thrown in the air and now being recofigured, in a different shape, with a different picture, and same players minus one. But again, just like Hariri had a firm grip on the constituents of the state, same goes for Nasrallah.

And obviously, this begs the question - now what? Late writer John Le Carre once said "society is unconcerned with the aftermath of sensation." We are now on the front pages of newspapers, worldwide, but soon a different crisis will emerge and dethrone us. And if we are going to count on the Lebanese politicians, who have proven to care for no one but their own interests (though, truth be told, their longevity in the business might prove they are doing a good work taking care of themselves - except well, those who were assassinated) then we might be stuck in the same loop.

Because as it is half a million people have fled the south of the Lebanon occupying as many governmental schools as possible (schools which are not equipped to handle them), and - whereas a lot of people are doing splendid work on the ground distributing mattresses and food for them, already the Lebanese society is stretched to the extreme between the financial, political, and economic crash it has been facing since 2019 - not to mention the influx of Syrians who fled their own country for obvious reasons. And now we are at the gates of winter, and people's goodwill shall soon dry up.

Which brings us back to: Anyone who says they know what is going to happen is lying.

Traces of John Le Carre in Lebanon

Now that John Le Carre, the man who gave us masterful works of literature (and one orphan non-spy based work which was derided by the literature clique but which I dearly loved "The Naive and Sentimental Lover"), has passed away. I have proofs he passed by Lebanon. The first one above, is his signed copy of The Little Drummer Girl (part of which happens in Lebanon) which was signed to the late British journalist Robin Mannock.

The other less obvious? A welcome drink at the Commodore Hotel (where journalists would stay during the war). I found it in Robin's archives which were handed down to me. At first I did not pay much attention to it. Later I discovered that in The Little Drummer Girl, the author says he (or his main protagonist) stayed at room 607 at the Commodore. I immediately remembered I read that number previously, where else but in Robin's card (the man Robin was meeting was staying in that room!). The card is referenced as 11/2/1982 and the book signed in 23/4/1983. I will let you do the math.