Monday, January 18, 2021

Can we apply MAD theory between Hezbollah and Israel? Thank you.

Still from the movie War Games

Good news: Hezhollah has precision missiles (as per Israel's Channel 13)

Bad news: Hezhollah has precision missiles (as per Israel's Channel 13)

Now, yes, I know - the same news can be looked at from two competing points of views. And I am personally freaking out with the possibility of a war looming (hey, I said the same thing about banks crashing and I was laughed at!). Naturally, between our economic breakdown, or the covid situation, or the daily struggles we face in Lebanon, or the lack of government, or the disparity in opinion when it comes to our regional allegiances, or this incredible dark cloud (hey, with the winter being so rainy-less so far it is not even a "real" cloud!) looming over Lebanon, all this is not even on the radar yet.

But it is there, make no mistake.

My best hope is that the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) theory would prevail between Lebanon (specifically Hezhollah) and Israel. I mean, it did work preventing a global war between the United States and the (then) USSR, so why not now. In case you are not familiar with the concept, MAD is simply about the idea that once war is unleashed, it is enough to destroy both sides of the equation. And yes, I know what you are thinking, how can Hezhollah claim to have the same military capacity as Israel?

Exhibit one: the 2006 war.

Exhibit two: Hezhollah has precision missiles (as per Israel's Channel 13)

That Lebanon needs less worries and hassles when we have a(n almost) total void of central decision making what's with a caretaker government taking the backseat, and a new government formation taking no seat at all, is a bit obvious. Still, I may be ringing the doom and gloom for no reason (that's me calming myself down), but realistically... Where is Stanislav Petrov when you need him?