Are we in the January advertising slump yet?

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Dry January.

No, no, not that dry January (the alcohol-free month), the one where there are no ads in town. You might be forgiven to think that many months a year were "dry January" considering how bad the situation is on the advertising front. My pot pourri of ads around town published pre-Christmas (here) apparently struck a major chord and I heard many echoes that 1) the ads were miserable creativity wise 2) these were scrapping of the barrel in terms of already-dwindling budgets 3) since everything and everyone migrated to the digital realm, these were one-offs just for people to keep seeing brands while stuck in end-of-year traffic jams.

As I said, usually January is the empty month: budgets of the prior year have been spent, Valentine is still far-off in February, and strategies (please, it is rude to laugh) are being debated between agencies and client teams (which usually end in some "hurry-up-and-wait" - meaning the client goes incommunicado for a long time then shows up wanting an ad "yesterday"). But again, I cannot stress it often enough, these are incredibly hard times for the advertising business - sure, in other nations as well it seems, but in Lebanon particularly. 

When the crisis exploded in 2019, many predicted that by 2023 the economy would be on the "recovery" - I have spoken to many people who own businesses, and the agreement was that whereas the first half of the year was very promising, starting June (this is way before the next-door crisis started in Gaza, and then escalated to the South of Lebanon) things went downhill, or to be more specific "nosedived" (to quote one person). And since the economy is inter-related (as the Lebanese proverb goes "the blacksmith is at the carpenter's...") it was a full domino effect.

The expats who back for the holidays and end-of-year celebrations apparently gave the restaurants/cafes (not the whole HORECA - HOtels, REstaurants, CAfes) a major morphine shot with 80% of tables being occupied mainly in Beirut and other "safe" hubs (meaning areas close to the conflict in South Lebanon did not get to benefit from the timely uptick) - hotels did not get any of it with expats living either living at relatives' places or their own homes. A much needed interlude for sure, but of course, now that all these people went back to their respective foreign lands (where they reside either permanently or intermittently) in the post-holiday, I wonder what will remain of that boom.

Even the solar energy sector which witnessed a major explosion is now apparently in doldrums - from what I read those who could afford to have such systems installed have done so, and those cannot still rely on the expensive monthly communal generators. Mind you when a major tobacco company shuttered its door, and we know cigarettes sell like candy when stress levels are off the charts, this alone tells you how bad things are (interestingly, the company closed from one day to the next at the end of last year - 2023 - and indemnities were not paid to the workers and managers there). As I said, the economy is not in top shape and whereas the Dollar exchange in the black market is mostly stable, and the whole economy is Dollarized at this point and basically major transactions are in cash, still people are now at the end of their rope with poverty being at 80% of the population (and this is not just some "statistic" - one can feel everyone pinching and trying to save from spending where they can).

Sometimes I wish I can relate better figures and numbers, and yes, a lot of people like to "kill the messenger" rather than look at the real issues which got us here in the first place and which are affecting us all - at this point, a very wealthy man I know moved back with his family to his parents' house (OK, villa) because he could no longer afford to rent because the landlord now wants "fresh" Dollars. 

So again, if this month does not bring any new ads on the street, it is totally understandable. All companies are seeking to cut corners in spending and online one does not need to book or print or whatnot. Meanwhile the situation in Lebanon keeps getting more and more surreal on all levels.

Sleep Comfort - still doing "black" whatever

Ah so "black" Friday/November/whatever else is still going it seems. And so here we are - Sleep Comfort is announcing major sale using that gimmick. I have spoken prior about how we imported the black Friday thingy without the accompanying "thanksgiving" and how this ushered the Christmas sales period (here). Interestingly, I just read an article (here) about how people have switched back to essentials and how many businesses are shuttering, including the HORECA (Hotels, Restaurants, Cafes) sector which has been hit (again) - I have written about this prior (here):

"Also, according to figures - whereas more than 500 HORECA (hotels/restaurants/cafe) establishments closed down following the explosion of 2020, figures indicate that in the last few months 280 new restaurants have popped up in Beirut as of late. Batroun is now booming with restaurants, guesthouses, and other assortment of touristic establishments."

And so now we are back to the yo-yo game again what's with the Palestine repercussions on Lebanon are causing. Especially with the Christmas season coming and many people/businesses were relying on it for an influx of cash.

Skybar: a witness to the economic disparity in Lebanon

I have spoken about the economic disparity prior (more clearly here) and about the prohibitive rates of beach resorts (here), and too many times about the price of this and that for the average Lebanese (whatever "average" means). Still, there is always that one indicator that makes your eyes pop.

A lot of people are not aware that - aside from the Palestinian issue - economic and social disparity was among the chief factors that precipitated the war in Lebanon. Please re-read the passage I wrote in 2019 here about the "revolution" that was going on:

"People forget or disregard how much economic disparity between classes actually helped ignite the events in 1975 which culminated in the all out war. I remember what someone in the Lebanese Communist Party told me in an interview: "All I wanted was enough fare to pay a "service" (shared taxi) - not to participate in the upscale events, but to see then from afar". Naturally, like in every revolution or upheaval - there are the dreamers or idealists who want a far fetched goal such as "bring the system down" or something like that. And these abound in Lebanon."

Which brings us to 2023 and the ever-more widening gap. Sure, a lot of people, including myself, have lost whatever they stashed at the bank - some of us are getting it back (or partially) in pennies basically. Other families have people abroad who send them money - remittances have reached 6.8 Billion Dollars last year. Apparently, tourism and remittances account for 86% of the GDP at this point in Lebanon. 

Also, according to figures - whereas more than 500 HORECA (hotels/restaurants/cafe) establishments closed down following the explosion of 2020, figures indicate that in the last few months 280 new restaurants have popped up in Beirut as of late. Batroun is now booming with restaurants, guesthouses, and other assortment of touristic establishments. Prestigious hotels such as The Monroe and The Grey are reopening as well.

Skybar, one of the hottest and more ubiquitous places to party in Beirut is opening this week (June 28th) and its prices are what you would expect in a country with an economy which is exploding. Except that Lebanon's economy is not.

900 to 2500 USD for a table or a lounge (which fits 15 people, yay!). Prices are naturally eye-wateringly high.

But let me give you this other example. When May Hariri - who at the time was an "it" girl in the Lebanese clubs - was asked in 1989 (Miss Hariri would go on to marry then divorce the late great Melhem Barakat) how she was going to get the astronomic sum of 600 USD to do her nose job, she retorted "Allah bi dabber". God will provide.

In a society built on the m'as-tu-vu (have you seen me) and keeping up with the Joneses I guarantee you Skybar will be full.

Le Castel is reopening in Kaslik

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

At a time when many - as in by the hundreds - HORECA (Hotels, Restaurants and Cafes) are closing, the news that Le Castel is reopening in Kaslik is no mean feat considering the current economic hardship. The place had a very specific location - the roundabout right at the entrance of Kaslik (to the younger generation right opposite where Starbucks is now and where Lord of the Wings was - and ergo closed).

Was it iconic? Even though the word is used on everything and slapped to anything, yes, the place was. Sure, in its last days it was mostly populated by an older clientele. It eventually closed in 2012. But then - today - what do I find on my instagram feed. Their account announcing the reopening (here).

In 2020 I basically published what as a pseudo-obituary of Kaslik (here). I still have to ponder what the reopening of the Le Castel means, but - seriously - all respect for the move.