Lebanon, deja vu, and reloading the matrix

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Oh you know the drill. When you experience deja vu, it means they are reloading the matrix. Well, here we are a full year after the thawra, with the old familiar faces back in tow. No need to name them, you know the names. And that, much like the incredible Patrick Berberis film about the year 68 in the world, is a testament of how people favor what they know to the risk of a new scary possibility of total change.

Is change coming to Lebanon? Who knows? All I can say is that for all their good intentions, I see no concrete results on what thawra did. To be clear, am not blaming them for the financial mess (it was a matter of time before things exploded), and considering we tried before them in 2005 somehow the result was predictable. Now of course, if Saad Hariri manages to form a super stellar government which will boost the economy, create 900,000 jobs (his words not mine) among other promises, then who am I to argue?

Meanwhile, if he - or any other politician for that matter - manages to find the meds am looking for to insure the daily doses my mother takes, then am all ears and two hearing aids on top. I said it before, and will repeat it again:

"Il faut cultiver notre jardin" (we must cultivate our garden) said Voltaire at the end of Candide. No better, he said "Oui, mais il faut cultiver notre jardin" (yes, but we must cultivate our garden) in reply to Pangloss demagogic statements.

Right now, regardless which politician is in a position of power, what am doing is trying to build a financial policy for 2021, all while knowing the parameters are changing (yes, this includes the now reversed decision to stop Lebanese Pound cash withdrawal), and securing meds and preparing the house for winter and what not.

And if any politician wants to pitch in on the med list, feel free to contact me. Blue/Red pills not included.

A year ago... Seriously?

"A year ago" artwork by Tarek Chemaly

Oh spare me! I know everyone and their mother is writing about "a year ago".... You know the thawra and all that. Good for them. Me? Me I go back to Robert Frost's eternal words. 

“You’re searching, Joe,
For things that don’t exist; I mean beginnings.
Ends and beginnings—there are no such things.
There are only middles.”

We all like to commemorate things. But honestly last year was but one of a full decade, decade, of problems. Problems that beget problems, and were started by other problems, and came wrapped in problems. "Am still standing" as Elton John eloquently put it. But honestly take your "a year ago" and shove it where appropriate.

Sincerely,

The management.

Annahar subverts women's stereotypes

 Annahar is subverting stereotypes about women. Boldly and smartly.

"Girls should not stay out late", "Women talk too much", "Women should know their place" - the respective images tell the other story. The long copy, which trust me is exceptionally hard to do, tells the fuller story. The ads are really good. The problem? What is their target audience? To whom are they addressed? Are they done for the awards season or do they have a real target in mind. If I ask, it is because Nayla Tueni (CEO of Annahar) went to Cyprus to have a civil marriage instead of fighting for civil marriages here in Lebanon (when she was a member of the parliament no less!), which prompted me to write the piece that made it to her Wikipedia entry "what's so civil about this marriage?" - so Mrs Tueni Maktabi cannot have it both ways. My verdict? These are ads made for awards, no more, no less.

History, Karl Marx, Thawra, Sulta, and Abou Saada

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce - Karl Marx

I wonder at what stage Lebanon is. The tragedy or the farce.

Zealots are on all sides, all sides. What everyone seems to want is a black and white no gray zones in a world where everything is full of nuance. Strange how lately several people called me optimist or full of hope when pessimism and day to day rationalism seem to guide me (side note: I still believe, one way or another the money in the bank - the Lollar - will be given back in the long run, this is not optimism, this is the long view of things).

What is sexily called "sulta" (authority - regime) is clinging on to what is has always worked (and I must stress that not just politicians and warlords made it work, it is the average Joe as well) - a post-feudal, clientage-based (wasta) system, and lately argued that no one found its interest in changing the current equation (read here) no matter what Thawra (revolution) doe-eyed youngsters playing revolutionary games seem to think.

Naturally, the August 4 explosion only added to the impasse. But also to the division. The narrative that people are breaking free from their political affiliation shackles is a fallacy (again, read here), no matter what you read on Instagram. A certain person I know, who holds a Ph.D. no less, read in his far left view, that the people who went out manifesting after the explosion had already burried the old regime, in a scene right out of the Communist manifestations with "power to the people" and what not.

Perhaps one of the most pertinent analysis I have read about the situation was detailed in Charles Al-Hayek brilliant Heritage and Roots Instagram account (here):

In the turbulent mid-nineteenth century years, Halil Pasha, an Ottoman admiral, was sent to inspect the turbulence in Mount Lebanon following the end of the emirate system in 1841.
Before setting sail from Istanbul, he paid a visit to the exiled emir of Mount Lebanon, Bashir Shihab, who ruled from 1788 until his fall and exile in 1840.
After the usual compliments, he turned to the emir and asked how he had managed to rule Mount Lebanon for so long and what could he tell him about the nature of the region’s inhabitant.
He replied: “It is true that I ruled for that long, but every three or four years the inhabitants would rebel, although they never succeeded. I would kill, hang, imprison and beat without opposition to make them submit”. As for their nature, he said “there is a bird in Mount Lebanon called Abu Far, which hunts mice. He is bigger than a falcon and perches on a high tree. When the sun rises, he looks to his shadow and sees it larger than it actually is and so he tells himself, today, I must hunt a camel. But as the sun rises higher, his shadow grows proportionally smaller until the sun looms over his head; then Abu Far looks to his shadow and sees it smaller than it actually is, and so he settles on hunting mice.”

The emir who has two male descendants, was known as "Abou Saada" ("Father of "- the customary nickname for married men, and instead of the name of his eldest male descendant (Amin) he was called after his eldest daughter) was wise indeed. Russian writer Alexander Herzen did say "the departing world leaves behind it not an heir, but a pregnant widow"... If there is any transition, it will be painful, and long.

Abou Saada for president!

Case failing, Abou Fouad!

C'est pas parce qu'on n'a rien a dire (Qu'il faut fermer sa gueule)

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

On January 31st, 2007 I wrote a blog post with the same name which is actually the name of a French movie (actually it was my 6th blog post ever, whereas this is my 4605th post). The blog was about three weeks old. Back then, the world was so utterly different. Really, different. Yet here we are, by hook or by crook the blog still functions - is still miraculously successful, and lo and behold it did not become some cheap clickbait nor did I morph into some attention-seeking creature.

Lately a classmate who knew me from school reconnected with me on Linkedin and asked about my whereabouts so I recommended using Google. About 15 minutes later he comes back "wow, you're everywhere. No, your work is everywhere but you are almost nowhere!"

All right, there is a point to what saying. For the last few days I had to backtrack through all the posts written in 2020 due to "technical reasons". And whereas this year was incredibly stingy in ads (look here), it is fascinating to see how much I could still find topics to cover.

I mean seriously, in 2007 my post was about how to find a unique take on things. And oddly, that take continues. How I find it is beyond me. And no, for all its success the blog remains the best kept secret. Brands can't buy it, beyond classifiable to many, and still accessible for anyone who wants to put an effort.

Yet what going back through the 2020 posts taught me, was that despite the rather dismal number of ads, I still managed to create engaging content centered around communication. Something which the unwavering number of readers attests to.

But 2020 has been an exhausting year, exponentially so if you were Lebanese. So as we all push to go forward worried about our health, belongings, finances, and what not... And again all this took from our strength, and sapped the remainder of our energy.

Yesterday a certain Thawra (Lebanese revolution) Instagram account tagged someone I respect and care about deeply because she voiced a political opinion. When I messaged them explaining how much of a wonderful human being she is, how generous and kind. I got a barrage of insults and my words were twisted so as to appear as a death threat when I simply mentioned the historical fact that Robespierre who himself was a leading revolutionary died under the guillotine. The discussion sadly reminded me why I unfollowed certain people, the lack of nuance and "if you're not with us, you're against us" attitude was too glaring.

Still, onward and forwards, and like any (in)decent politician: C'est pas parce qu'on n'a rien a dire (Qu'il faut fermer sa gueule)."

In Lebanon, the squeaky wheel gets all the media attention.

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly

International media are gloating. The time has come. People in Lebanon are turning their backs on their leaders, and want change, real change. The magnitude of the August 4 explosion that happened was such that people have changed their lifelong allegiances, and want out. Hezbollah has a very weakening base it seems, an ex member who sells arms certifies it.

Lovely narrative, if only it was true. 

You know the expression, "the squeaky wheel gets all the grease" and the people protesting really do seem sexy....

Here's a burning question: Do all Lebanese people want change?

Short answer: No.

Long answer: No, they don't.

Lebanon is governed by the 6w6 mkarrar equation. Six and six multiplied, which means government positions are split evenly between Christians and Moslems. When the rule was instated, there was indeed such an even distribution between the sects and religions. Let us see what the demographic numbers said in 2019: "The latest official census conducted in 1932 indicated that the Lebanese population totaled 875,252 people, while Muslims made up 40% of the community and Christians 58.7%. The recent report shows that Christians make up 30.6% of the community, while Muslims make up 69.4%." (Source)

So, with the Lebanese Christians now proportionately, half of the number they were, they are being given a favor in terms of the equal splitting of the official positions because currently, they are getting 50% when they currently make up 30%. Would you, as a Christian, want to change such a system?

Shiites make up 30,6% and Sunnites 30.3% - That is almost even but again, currently double the Christian side.

The Shiites long dubbed "el mahroumin" (the deprived) - and rightfully so - now find themselves kingmakers in the current system. It would be idiotic to let go of such a power honestly. This is an unpopular opinion, but it is based on facts. When there were no schools, hospitals or dispensaries in the Shiite areas, Hezbollah came (yes, with an agenda) and built such places. Then, the government woke up with the house on fire, and for a long time, there was a talk about the state "exerting its power in all Lebanese land" (nice propaganda). Too little, to late. Someone else was there before you. And the people's allegiance is to them. Or to use an expression dear to the Americans "won their hearts and minds".

Now as a liberal and progressive with little or no paranoia, as someone who befriended people from other religions long before it was "cool" and (instagram) photogenic to do so, I have zero threat about who rules me (how is sexier for me). Naturally, this is not the case for many. Lebanon is a country not just à deux vitesses (on two speeds) but on a hundred different speeds all at once.

I have been hearing so much about anticipated parliamentary elections. Great, but.... Without educating people about new possibilities, the same lot already elected will come back, with a vengeance. Now, famous singers Elissa and Zein el Omr disavowed respectively, the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement after being staunch supporters of each. But these are the exceptions rather than the rule. Normal people, seeing their visual and emotional references vanish in the explosion gravitated closer to what they previously knew: Their political alliances and likes.

At the end of the Ottoman empire, a consultant was brought by the French to assess the case of Lebanon. At the end of his long report he ends with, "Ca marche, n'y touchons pas" - it works, let's not touch it.

My fear is that it still works (with all its defects and issues), and we are touching it.

Advertising revenue is down 90% in Lebanon

At the beginning of the year, trusted media and advertising personality Naji Boulos forecasted that the 2020 expenditure in Lebanon was going to be 100 million Dollars or 25 Dollars roughly per person. How wrong he was.... In a private chat with him he estimated the figure will be around 20 million by the end of the year. COVID, lockdown, inflation, devaluation, capital controls, all played a part - add to that the digital migration of advertising (seriously, why would anyone use OOH anymore? I explained that here). Agencies estimate that the revenue is down 90% now that we passed mid-year. Numbers are unlikely to get better or increase with the impeding factors here to stay. 

On optimism and the one-handed economist in Lebanon.

Artwork by Tarek Chemaly based on Albrecht Durer

Lately, I have been accused of being an optimist - specifically due to this piece.

Trust me, I am innocent of all charges.

I am impulsive, at times reckless, perhaps naive and gullible, but certainly am not an optimist.

The piece in question was based on experience and a rational thinking. Thinking short term is going to complicate matters, even though I realize asking to do so would be too much for someone who has their nose in the daily grind.

Another word that also gets on my nerves is resilience. It is that said resilience and our way to find short term fixes that got us as Lebanese where we are today. Had we really demanded and executed change along with accountability we would not have ended with B systems that work instead of the original A (the official recognized one).

Look am  not predicting easy, populist fixes, and my nephews tend to dislike me when my answers tend to be complex. Thankfully, they hear them out. And end up activating their neurons in the process. Which reminds of this old story. 

An emperor asked his chief of staff to find him a one-handed economist. The man rummaged the land and found none. Back to the palace he asks the emperor why would he need such a person, and the emperor answers, "because all their answers end with "on the other hand"..."

I know it seems am giving a convoluted answer to a simple question. But without being optimist or resilient, I still think we will pull through in Lebanon. In the long run.

SKeyes explores censorship with "freedom is not a number"

SKeyes (SK stands for slain journalist Samur Kassir) gets director Roy  Dib to speak of censorship in Lebanon. Dib whose work was exhibited worldwide, and whose thematic I really like, is indeed candid.

Who can censor? The army

What can you talk about? Not much (everything is seen as devaluing women or inciting on debauchery or homosexuality)

And the list continues. With all his frankness Dib only scratches the surface of the iceberg.

I was once at the opening of a movie festival in 2010 and 5 mins before the movie starts the organizer shows up and says "we still do not have an answer from censorship, sometimes no answer is an answer" (the movie in question was "Chou Sar" by Charles de Gaulle Eid). At times the reasons given are too vague or obscure but irrevocable and irrefutable.

Watch the SK Eyes Roy Dib here... Worth it. Freedom is not a number indeed.

 

There are much fewer corny ads in town.

Artwork by the talented Jad Chidiac

For a blog whose main material is talking about ads, the fact that there are no ads to talk about should be devastating. Prior to Coronavirus, the estimated per capita ad spend was 25 Dollars per Lebanese citizen for 2020 or the (dismal) sum of 100 Million Dollars - the virus (and I stand being corrected) has certainly pushed this figure lower.

Mother's Day, Easter, Ramadan, Eid el Fitr all came and went without a whimper in adland. Normally these occasions would send the market into a frenzy of pseudo-idiotic output. Everyone who thinks is creative would emerge with a silly thing to paste online. Which is why the absence of such superfluous ads is more a blessing than a curse.

Make no mistake, yes, jobs are being lost and unemployment among the youth is said to be at 35% (when the national average is 27% - though to be honest, I think the real figures are much higher). And considering people who work in communication or agencies are rather young (this is no age discrimination, just a fact), then younger people are more hit than other age categories. Actually, a year ago I was in a jury at a reputable university grading final projects and one girl did not show up. I told her friend to call her to check up on her lest she be sick or had an accident. Her friend came back saying "she says she did not bother show up, not that she is going to find a job anyhow."

At one point though, there was too much advertising. Worse, there was too much bad advertising that came and went and was utterly forgettable and those who think they can create a ruckus around their brands by doing "controversial" ads, do think again please. A furniture store and a jewelry store (both handled by the same agency) closed down when - only a year back - both were banking on ads that supposedly stirred the pot.

That the Lebanese consumer is trying to decrease spending is now a given. That brand loyalty is out the window is also a fact. I met a couple I know, him an engineer and her a teacher, while shopping at the supermarket, she sent him down the oil isle with specific instructions: "bring anything medium size and avoid brands X and Y - with the price difference I will buy cans of hummus." And that is supposed to be the middle class. Or what is left of it.

I know it seems I am gloating at the social repercussions of this. I am not, and no, I am not being hypocrite. Whereas I am glad there is much less corny advertising that masquerades as creativity, the downside is that this falls as a domino. The only silver lining? The only youth that hanged on to their jobs (be it copywriters, art directors, planners, or client servicing people) are the really talented ones. I am in contact with many of them as ex students and take pride in having taught them (and who knows, maybe unlocked some of that creativity by pushing them to the edge of the cliff, knowing they will fly rather than fall).

"Wasta" (or the clientage system where unqualified people could take certain positions due to who they know) can only get you this far. When a company's survival fate is in the balance, they hang on to talent.

City Mall capitalizes on the revolution

Well, many other brands did it, so why not City Mall? No, I am not a big fan of such ads. Riding the wave of the revolution and popular anger and repackaging it to sell this and that (from burgers, to furniture to malls....) does not seem logical. But then again, any excuse to seem abreast with events seems good enough to advertisers.
Just to give credit where credit is due, the ad City Mall did for Christmas was exceptional: